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Post by aaronaldo on Feb 2, 2024 15:27:43 GMT
I wonder if any new coach announcement won’t be made until we have beaten derby tomorrow (lol) so not to distract from the coaching going on for the game? I doubt it. They can always announce it and not have him take control until after this game. Happens quite a lot. I don't think you'd want Derby as your first game in charge tbf. |
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Post by manikin on Feb 2, 2024 15:30:08 GMT
I wonder if any new coach announcement won’t be made until we have beaten derby tomorrow (lol) so not to distract from the coaching going on for the game? I doubt it. They can always announce it and not have him take control until after this game. Happens quite a lot. I don't think you'd want Derby as your first game in charge tbf. I'm not the patient sort, it's the waiting that gets me. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2024 15:32:31 GMT
Hope if it is Nathan Jones he keeps Curtis Fleming.
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Post by seriouslyred on Feb 2, 2024 15:34:40 GMT
How much of the above is fact, and how much predictions and scenarios? I hadn't considered our February fixtures as I rarely look beyond the next game. The key to solving this mess is winning a game, and then another. So perhaps we focus upon progress and our chances vs Lincoln and Reading. As well as considering with open eyes just what our new manager / head coach might be able to deliver with our current squad. And that's all gonna be speculation until we see a few games. Just for good measure add in some cameo appearances from Aneke and there's absolutely no certainty either way! Can’t believe that a stats -focused fan like you doesn’t look at our forthcoming fixtures 🤔 52- 54 points should keep us this season. We still need around 6 wins & a couple of scraps. As Occam pronounced, keep it simple! In order to win six games we must first win one - agreed? And the chances of winning improves exponentially should Jones* be able to recover our xG from the cliff it fell over back in December. Reminds me of our relegation fight ten years ago, when we had 16 games left when Duchatelet sacked Powell to replace him with Riga. If I recall correctly we didn't concede a goal in our first three games under Riga. And the football improved too! So many things are different today but there's still a massive variance in possible outcomes. Perhaps we should just enjoy the experience! *assuming he takes the job |
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Post by kings hill addick on Feb 2, 2024 15:41:14 GMT
I can’t remember a Charlton side fit enough recently to be able to apply a high pressing game This has been a concern of mine. When Appleton came in he mentioned the squad were not fit enough I thought. I didn't see much of a change though. Some of the new signings are clearly off the pace atm, so hard to judge on their ability as anyone unfit looks terrible. Obviously this is a whole new ball game this year with the extended extra time etc. I've been reading about the impact of this on player injuries and it's quite significant. Not only did they not get fitter, but that's when the injuries started. I would say that Appleton's biggest mistake was playing Aneke four times in eleven days. He started one other game after that and hasn't been seen again since October. Bowyer used to push the players and we had injuries then. It must be possible to avoid injuries, though, as the Liverpool side run and run and run but they don't get that many injuries. Hopefully the new chap from Brighton is going to help with this but we haven't seemed as fit as other sides since Bowyer left. |
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Post by norfolkrobin on Feb 2, 2024 15:45:31 GMT
While there's an outside chance we stay up this year if Jones manages to actually sure up the defence and get some goals without any wingers in the side, but I certainly hope if the worst happens and we're relegated, that the owners have given Jones assurances there won't be a firesale for our best players, they'll continue to fund for another year and give him resources to aid the rebuild. With the squad we have I don't think we survive, but if we can get a full rebuild next year with the owner's support then I'd accept it tbh. We simply have to trust him (NJ).The rot is so deep,we need a serious overhaul.IF the worst happens we have to stick with him and allow him to start again. I hope/pray he's confirmed ASAP,and we can secure safety while he takes stock,but it won't be easy as we all know. Credit to SE7,it may very well get worse,before it gets better,but recognising a stop gap would be futile,we need to start the reboot now. |
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Post by valleyvon on Feb 2, 2024 15:54:24 GMT
I doubt it. They can always announce it and not have him take control until after this game. Happens quite a lot. I don't think you'd want Derby as your first game in charge tbf. I'm not the patient sort, it's the waiting that gets me. Me either, I just want it confirmed too desperately so we all know where we stand! I just wondered if they might just leave it 24 hours then is effectively a new week , fresh start and off we go… |
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Post by manikin on Feb 2, 2024 16:06:43 GMT
I'm not the patient sort, it's the waiting that gets me. Me either, I just want it confirmed too desperately so we all know where we stand! I just wondered if they might just leave it 24 hours then is effectively a new week , fresh start and off we go… My guess is if it happens it would be sometime between now and kick off and taking charge after the match. |
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Post by aaronaldo on Feb 2, 2024 16:22:52 GMT
Just me or are the club purposely posting all these tweets today? It's the busiest I've seen our official twitter in ages. More tweets than a match day. Just teasing us..
They know what we're waiting for. Maybe want to save it for match day?
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Post by bexleyboy on Feb 2, 2024 16:24:06 GMT
Just me or are the club purposely posting all these tweets today? It's the busiest I've seen our official twitter in ages. More tweets than a match day. Just teasing us.. They know what we're waiting for. Maybe want to save it for match day? Owners on the pitch with the new manager why not !! |
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Post by kings hill addick on Feb 2, 2024 16:37:37 GMT
As I said above, even if you’re right that your scenario is the single most likely outcome it can still be a low probability event because it represents the combination of a series of individual events which are all uncertain. In your mind you might be “certain” we’ll lose to Derby tomorrow and that is by far the single most likely outcome. It’s probably not much than 55% likely though. Can I respectfully suggest you think about my question above. Why do the bookmakers think our odds of survival are as high as 90%? That is a very long way from your statement. It may be that you have a blinding insight they lack or it might be that you’ve missed something significant. Either way, it might be worth it for you to reflect on the question. To be clear, I’m not looking for an answer. I don't want this to come across the wrong way, because I find I get on with you very well on here and find your posts measured and concise. That said, I find one or two of your comments here as very condescending. You don't need "blinding insight" to understand form of us vs the opposition we'll be facing over the next four weeks. I think it's possibly you who should reflect on our recent performances and maybe work out what it is that is giving you so much optimism to suggest my summary above is so wrong. Having reflected on my thoughts above over the last three or four games, knowing what would be coming next, I don't think I'm far off the truth. It's not an estimate to say that by our current form and that of the last three months, we will be going down - it's fact. There's no debating that because mathetmatically it's a true statement, unless something turns around that is our lot. The part that sparks debate is specifically *what* will turn our fortunes around - that could be Nathan Jones, that could be Chuks Aneke coming back from injury, that could be Kayne coming in at RB as Dani Alves reincarnate. However, speaking of probability, it's more probably that our poor form would continue, as we have three months of recent evidence. The probability of three months of poor form instantly changing is less likely and intangible, so I'd say you're basing your opinion more on optimism than fact.
I don't want to jump into someone else's discussion but I am a bit of a pedant when it comes to mathematics. In the three months to the 27th of January we played 15 games and managed 13 points. That is 0.866 points per game. We have 17 games left and 31 points. We also have a goal difference of -2 with 43 goals scored. 17 x 0.866 is 14.73. Add that to the 31 points we have now we would end up on 45.73 points - 46 if we round it up. Last season MK Dons went down in 4th from bottom with 45 points and -22 goal difference scoring 44 goals. In 2021/22 Morecambe finished 6th from bottom with 42 points On the basis that unless we have a 20 goal swing (from -2 to -22), we score fewer than 2 goals in our last 17 games, and we choose not to round 45.73 up to 46 points, we would have stayed up in the last two seasons based on out last three months form. So, I would suggest that mathematically, it is not a fact that we will go down based on the last three months form. It's no more than a guess. That said, I suspect that 46 points will not be enough, this season, it's just not a fact based on mathematics. For the record, to save you asking, I don't think we will go down. |
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Post by addickteduk on Feb 2, 2024 16:46:49 GMT
Any word on Nathan Jones @reams? You mentioned previously some potential (major) contractual issues that need to be ironed out.. bookies and media seem to think it's happening imminently - God, let's hope they're right and we can start trying to get this nightmare season heading in the right direction!
Also, there do seem to still be some interesting players out of contract that we could still bring in....are we still looking at options, or is that that until Summer?
PS. That joker Kirk has gone back to Crewe!
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Post by valley on Feb 2, 2024 16:49:41 GMT
Annonce Jones on the pitch tomorrow.
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Post by wiggyatthebackpost on Feb 2, 2024 16:51:23 GMT
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Post by valleyfaithful on Feb 2, 2024 16:51:36 GMT
I don't want this to come across the wrong way, because I find I get on with you very well on here and find your posts measured and concise. That said, I find one or two of your comments here as very condescending. You don't need "blinding insight" to understand form of us vs the opposition we'll be facing over the next four weeks. I think it's possibly you who should reflect on our recent performances and maybe work out what it is that is giving you so much optimism to suggest my summary above is so wrong. Having reflected on my thoughts above over the last three or four games, knowing what would be coming next, I don't think I'm far off the truth. It's not an estimate to say that by our current form and that of the last three months, we will be going down - it's fact. There's no debating that because mathetmatically it's a true statement, unless something turns around that is our lot. The part that sparks debate is specifically *what* will turn our fortunes around - that could be Nathan Jones, that could be Chuks Aneke coming back from injury, that could be Kayne coming in at RB as Dani Alves reincarnate. However, speaking of probability, it's more probably that our poor form would continue, as we have three months of recent evidence. The probability of three months of poor form instantly changing is less likely and intangible, so I'd say you're basing your opinion more on optimism than fact.
I don't want to jump into someone else's discussion but I am a bit of a pedant when it comes to mathematics. In the three months to the 27th of January we played 15 games and managed 13 points. That is 0.866 points per game. We have 17 games left and 31 points. We also have a goal difference of -2 with 43 goals scored. 17 x 0.866 is 14.73. Add that to the 31 points we have now we would end up on 45.73 points - 46 if we round it up. Last season MK Dons went down in 4th from bottom with 45 points and -22 goal difference scoring 44 goals. In 2021/22 Morecambe finished 6th from bottom with 42 points On the basis that unless we have a 20 goal swing (from -2 to -22), we score fewer than 2 goals in our last 17 games, and we choose not to round 45.73 up to 46 points, we would have stayed up in the last two seasons based on out last three months form. So, I would suggest that mathematically, it is not a fact that we will go down based on the last three months form. It's no more than a guess. That said, I suspect that 46 points will not be enough, this season, it's just not a fact based on mathematics. For the record, to save you asking, I don't think we will go down. If you completed the above equation for each team below us based on current situation and recent form, that would be a more accurate data set than last year's figures - that's the conclusion I was drawing is that I think we're in the 4 worst teams in this league based on form. |
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Post by reamsofverse on Feb 2, 2024 17:10:22 GMT
Any word on Nathan Jones @reams? You mentioned previously some potential (major) contractual issues that need to be ironed out.. bookies and media seem to think it's happening imminently - God, let's hope they're right and we can start trying to get this nightmare season heading in the right direction! Also, there do seem to still be some interesting players out of contract that we could still bring in....are we still looking at options, or is that that until Summer? PS. That joker Kirk has gone back to Crewe! Nothing of note really. I know one of the grey areas was his backroom staff. I'm sure wants the people who have been with him throughout his mangagerial career but Curtis Fleming has a contract which we have no intention paying off and why should we? Jones normally works with Chris Cohen and Paul Hart as his right hand men but four into three don't go. Something is going to have to give and it hasn't yet. |
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Post by kings hill addick on Feb 2, 2024 17:22:47 GMT
I don't want to jump into someone else's discussion but I am a bit of a pedant when it comes to mathematics. In the three months to the 27th of January we played 15 games and managed 13 points. That is 0.866 points per game. We have 17 games left and 31 points. We also have a goal difference of -2 with 43 goals scored. 17 x 0.866 is 14.73. Add that to the 31 points we have now we would end up on 45.73 points - 46 if we round it up. Last season MK Dons went down in 4th from bottom with 45 points and -22 goal difference scoring 44 goals. In 2021/22 Morecambe finished 6th from bottom with 42 points On the basis that unless we have a 20 goal swing (from -2 to -22), we score fewer than 2 goals in our last 17 games, and we choose not to round 45.73 up to 46 points, we would have stayed up in the last two seasons based on out last three months form. So, I would suggest that mathematically, it is not a fact that we will go down based on the last three months form. It's no more than a guess. That said, I suspect that 46 points will not be enough, this season, it's just not a fact based on mathematics. For the record, to save you asking, I don't think we will go down. If you completed the above equation for each team below us based on current situation and recent form, that would be a more accurate data set than last year's figures - that's the conclusion I was drawing is that I think we're in the 4 worst teams in this league based on form. I'm sorry, but it, really, wouldn't! Taking such a small sample is never going to give accurate figures. Data over a season includes every club home and away. Pick fifteen games and that could include the top fifteen clubs, nine away six at home or it could include the bottom fifteen nine at home, six away. Neither of those gives anything like an accurate representation of a whole season, and trying to compare like for like, to make predictions, is dangerous. Nor does it take into account the fact that as the season comes to a close the teams at the top and the bottom improve as they will, inevitably, play mid-table sides that have less to play for. This is why a comparison has to be made with a full data set - i.e. each club playing 46 games - a whole season. I played with your 'prediction' but the truth is that using our last fifteen games is useless as a data set, too. We have changed the manager, we have signed new players and we have injured players coming back into the side. For that reason I would bet my house that we won't average 8.66 points per game for the rest of the season. In fact we cannot! |
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Post by valleyfaithful on Feb 2, 2024 17:26:57 GMT
If you completed the above equation for each team below us based on current situation and recent form, that would be a more accurate data set than last year's figures - that's the conclusion I was drawing is that I think we're in the 4 worst teams in this league based on form. I'm sorry, but it, really, wouldn't! Taking such a small sample is never going to give accurate figures. Data over a season includes every club home and away. Pick fifteen games and that could include the top fifteen clubs, nine away six at home or it could include the bottom fifteen nine at home, six away. Neither of those gives anything like an accurate representation of a whole season, and trying to compare like for like, to make predictions, is dangerous. Nor does it take into account the fact that as the season comes to a close the teams at the top and the bottom improve as they will, inevitably, play mid-table sides that have less to play for. This is why a comparison has to be made with a full data set - i.e. each club playing 46 games - a whole season. I played with your 'prediction' but the truth is that using our last fifteen games is useless as a data set, too. We have changed the manager, we have signed new players and we have injured players coming back into the side. For that reason I would bet my house that we won't average 8.66 points per game for the rest of the season. In fact we cannot! I certainly hope you’re right on the last sentence, but I disagree completely that comparing last seasons final point balance to our current form is more accurate than replicating the formula you’ve used for our form, but on those teams below us as that would give final standings based on our current players and the current players of those around us. Agree to disagree I think on this one. |
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Post by aaronaldo on Feb 2, 2024 17:33:52 GMT
Any word on Nathan Jones @reams? You mentioned previously some potential (major) contractual issues that need to be ironed out.. bookies and media seem to think it's happening imminently - God, let's hope they're right and we can start trying to get this nightmare season heading in the right direction! Also, there do seem to still be some interesting players out of contract that we could still bring in....are we still looking at options, or is that that until Summer? PS. That joker Kirk has gone back to Crewe! Nothing of note really. I know one of the grey areas was his backroom staff. I'm sure wants the people who have been with him throughout his mangagerial career but Curtis Fleming has a contract which we have no intention paying off and why should we? Jones normally works with Chris Cohen and Paul Hart as his right hand men but four into three don't go. Something is going to have to give and it hasn't yet. Hasn’t Cohen recently joined Lincoln as assistant? Would he even be available atm? Seems unlikely |
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Post by reamsofverse on Feb 2, 2024 17:41:28 GMT
He did yes mate, I meant to say Alan Sheehan not Cohen, my mistake.
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Post by melrose555 on Feb 2, 2024 17:42:35 GMT
Any word on Nathan Jones @reams? You mentioned previously some potential (major) contractual issues that need to be ironed out.. bookies and media seem to think it's happening imminently - God, let's hope they're right and we can start trying to get this nightmare season heading in the right direction! Also, there do seem to still be some interesting players out of contract that we could still bring in....are we still looking at options, or is that that until Summer? PS. That joker Kirk has gone back to Crewe! Nothing of note really. I know one of the grey areas was his backroom staff. I'm sure wants the people who have been with him throughout his mangagerial career but Curtis Fleming has a contract which we have no intention paying off and why should we? Jones normally works with Chris Cohen and Paul Hart as his right hand men but four into three don't go. Something is going to have to give and it hasn't yet. Well that was really wise bringing Flemming in, when it was obvious that 1) Appleton was gonna have to go 2) Any new manager was likely to want their right hand men/man in It does make you wonder! |
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Post by reamsofverse on Feb 2, 2024 17:50:32 GMT
Nothing of note really. I know one of the grey areas was his backroom staff. I'm sure wants the people who have been with him throughout his mangagerial career but Curtis Fleming has a contract which we have no intention paying off and why should we? Jones normally works with Chris Cohen and Paul Hart as his right hand men but four into three don't go. Something is going to have to give and it hasn't yet. Well that was really wise bringing Flemming in, when it was obvious that 1) Appleton was gonna have to go 2) Any new manager was likely to want their right hand men/man in It does make you wonder! Not really. Fleming's contract and poistion would not have been governed by what happened to Appleton. |
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Post by melrose555 on Feb 2, 2024 17:55:52 GMT
Well that was really wise bringing Flemming in, when it was obvious that 1) Appleton was gonna have to go 2) Any new manager was likely to want their right hand men/man in It does make you wonder! Not really. Fleming's contract and poistion would not have been governed by what happened to Appleton. Yes, but it could affect the appointment of another manager who want to bring their own men in. Which seems? to be happening with Jones, if you are correct |
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Post by leedsaddick on Feb 2, 2024 18:28:41 GMT
Latest tweet from Cawley…. …suggesting that Jones deal is done and he’ll be at the valley tomorrow
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Post by pardew123 on Feb 2, 2024 18:34:16 GMT
Wanted Jones or Rowett I think Jones will be fantastic for us it’s a real coup for league 1 to get him back him and we will flourish he will be passionate and fiery just what we need in contrast to Apples just standing on touch line he’s a builder builds a team up brick by brick and gets promoted which is what we want and need we’re badly underachieving have been for years.
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Post by bexleyboy on Feb 2, 2024 18:55:37 GMT
Not really. Fleming's contract and poistion would not have been governed by what happened to Appleton. Yes, but it could affect the appointment of another manager who want to bring their own men in. Which seems? to be happening with Jones, if you are correct Jones deal done there no problem with backroom staff , Andy Scott or Martin Sandgarrd ….. |
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Post by newyorkaddick on Feb 2, 2024 19:39:32 GMT
Wanted Jones or Rowett I think Jones will be fantastic for us it’s a real coup for league 1 to get him back him and we will flourish he will be passionate and fiery just what we need in contrast to Apples just standing on touch line he’s a builder builds a team up brick by brick and gets promoted which is what we want and need we’re badly underachieving have been for years. I've come around to the view that Jones is probably our best option amongst realistic candidates and given our current position (which probably rules out a more leftfield younger option). However apologies for being a pedant but Jones has only won one promotion (and that was from L2 to L1). He left Luton for Stoke in Jan 2019 when they were 2nd in L1 and they subsequently won the division. After returning he left again in November 2022 when they were midtable in the Championship and Rob Edwards took them to the playoffs and promotion. |
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Post by Occam’s Razor on Feb 2, 2024 19:56:18 GMT
Yes, but it could affect the appointment of another manager who want to bring their own men in. Which seems? to be happening with Jones, if you are correct Jones deal done there no problem with backroom staff , Andy Scott or Martin Sandgarrd ….. Martin Sandgaard left Charlton last Summer Colin. |
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Post by Occam’s Razor on Feb 2, 2024 19:58:11 GMT
Any word on Nathan Jones @reams? You mentioned previously some potential (major) contractual issues that need to be ironed out.. bookies and media seem to think it's happening imminently - God, let's hope they're right and we can start trying to get this nightmare season heading in the right direction! Also, there do seem to still be some interesting players out of contract that we could still bring in....are we still looking at options, or is that that until Summer? PS. That joker Kirk has gone back to Crewe! Nothing of note really. I know one of the grey areas was his backroom staff. I'm sure wants the people who have been with him throughout his mangagerial career but Curtis Fleming has a contract which we have no intention paying off and why should we? Jones normally works with Chris Cohen and Paul Hart as his right hand men but four into three don't go. Something is going to have to give and it hasn't yet. I see there’s a few comments on another forum that you have got a lot wrong, and didn’t predict Jones, Small or the Harrogate lad. Is it possible that with Jones now on the scene, the SMT have been cut out of it, & the info that you and Dubai have been getting will dry up ? Serious question. |
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Post by reamsofverse on Feb 2, 2024 20:08:20 GMT
Nothing of note really. I know one of the grey areas was his backroom staff. I'm sure wants the people who have been with him throughout his mangagerial career but Curtis Fleming has a contract which we have no intention paying off and why should we? Jones normally works with Chris Cohen and Paul Hart as his right hand men but four into three don't go. Something is going to have to give and it hasn't yet. I see there’s a few comments on another forum that you have got a lot wrong, and didn’t predict Jones, Small or the Harrogate lad. Is it possible that with Jones now on the scene, the SMT have been cut out of it, & the info that you and Dubai have been getting will dry up ? Serious question. Been out all day, only had a quick chat with CM this morning and I had no updates. Just for the record I couldn't give a monkies about CL. Some decent folk on there but a dozen or so total pricks. Some real sad fuckers around spending all day on a fans forum. They should know about any updates before me on that basis! Besides I don't share what I do on here for their benefit. Friday is my golf day and that won't change. If there's one day of the of the week I will be behind the times it's a Friday and it's going to stay that way. I have nothing to prove to anyone apart from trying to get my handicap down!! As for Jones I said it was 40%-60% against last night based on where we were with it at the time of posting. Hurdles to overcome and a couple of things to be ironed out. Think it's obvious that as progress is made the percentages change. 24 hours later it's still not announced officially so clearly the bumps in the road I mentioned were valid. |
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