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Post by valleyfaithful on Feb 2, 2024 12:38:33 GMT
While there's an outside chance we stay up this year if Jones manages to actually sure up the defence and get some goals without any wingers in the side, but I certainly hope if the worst happens and we're relegated, that the owners have given Jones assurances there won't be a firesale for our best players, they'll continue to fund for another year and give him resources to aid the rebuild. With the squad we have I don't think we survive, but if we can get a full rebuild next year with the owner's support then I'd accept it tbh. I just can’t believe we will go down! May and Ladapo will come good with the addition of Aneke hopefully here and there. I think we will scrape over the line. While we've been in poor attacking form, it's the defence I don't think is necessarily fixable. I've seen nothing so far to make me think we won't concede 2+ a game. We rode our luck all the way up against Blackpool and it was the lowest amount conceded for a while!
We needed to replace AMB this window and another left sided defender.
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Post by manikin on Feb 2, 2024 12:39:03 GMT
While there's an outside chance we stay up this year if Jones manages to actually sure up the defence and get some goals without any wingers in the side, but I certainly hope if the worst happens and we're relegated, that the owners have given Jones assurances there won't be a firesale for our best players, they'll continue to fund for another year and give him resources to aid the rebuild. With the squad we have I don't think we survive, but if we can get a full rebuild next year with the owner's support then I'd accept it tbh. I certainly hope there is a bloody good chance we stay up, although at the moment like it or not we are in a relegation fight. |
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Post by Mundell on Feb 2, 2024 12:46:04 GMT
While there's an outside chance we stay up this year if Jones manages to actually sure up the defence and get some goals without any wingers in the side, but I certainly hope if the worst happens and we're relegated, that the owners have given Jones assurances there won't be a firesale for our best players, they'll continue to fund for another year and give him resources to aid the rebuild. With the squad we have I don't think we survive, but if we can get a full rebuild next year with the owner's support then I'd accept it tbh. I’m very surprised by this comment. Football is inherently unpredictable so it’s obvious we could go down. It’s most certainly a possibility. However, do you really believe we only have an outside chance of staying up? That seems very pessimistic. Four questions to consider. First, do you think Michael Appleton was underperforming given the players he had available or performing as expected given his squad. If the latter, I assume you think he was unlucky to be sacked? Second, do you think an average Head Coach would get more out of our squad of players than Appleton did? Third, do you think Nathan Jones is an average, above average or below average coach? Fourth, allowing for incomings, outgoings and players returning from injury, do you think the squad is stronger or weaker now than it was during Appleton’s last ten games in charge? Worth bearing in mind here that despite a dreadful run of results we’re still not in the bottom four. |
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Post by roburwash on Feb 2, 2024 12:47:47 GMT
Jones is a strong personality who has a very clear idea on how his team should play, particularly at this level. He likes to press high up the pitch, win the ball back early, and his own words he demands lots of tackles, shots and crosses from his players. His teams are high tempo and aggressive - Luton Town certainly were, and I hope we adopt their style of play. Jones has admitted to having a few rough edges that he needs to work on . He’s mentioned that he takes defeat very badly and gets too down, and that it affects him for days after. I’d much rather have that than a mannequin standing on the touchline, who claims that managerial passion is all an act. It’s good to finally have a popular Welshman 🏴 associated with CAFC 😉 It is! Even coming from a Romford born fan like me. 😉 Welsh and a god-botherer; two difficult pills for me to swallow. So he'd better be good and successful as the spoonful of sugar to make the medicine go down. |
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Post by earlpurple on Feb 2, 2024 12:51:53 GMT
May and Ladapo need service. Our most creative player we gave away to Derby.
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Post by clarky on Feb 2, 2024 12:56:25 GMT
While there's an outside chance we stay up this year if Jones manages to actually sure up the defence and get some goals without any wingers in the side, but I certainly hope if the worst happens and we're relegated, that the owners have given Jones assurances there won't be a firesale for our best players, they'll continue to fund for another year and give him resources to aid the rebuild. With the squad we have I don't think we survive, but if we can get a full rebuild next year with the owner's support then I'd accept it tbh. I’m very surprised by this comment. Football is inherently unpredictable so it’s obvious we could go down. It’s most certainly a possibility. However, do you really believe we only have an outside chance of staying up? That seems very pessimistic. Four questions to consider. First, do you think Michael Appleton was underperforming given the players he had available or performing as expected given his squad. If the latter, I assume you think he was unlucky to be sacked? Second, do you think an average Head Coach would get more out of our squad of players than Appleton did? Third, do you think Nathan Jones is an average, above average or below average coach? Fourth, allowing for incomings, outgoings and players returning from injury, do you think the squad is stronger or weaker now than it was during Appleton’s last ten games in charge? Worth bearing in mind here that despite a dreadful run of results we’re still not in the bottom four. If you base your assessment on recent form then we are going down. One away win and no back to back wins all season shows what the new manager is facing. Personally I think we will scrap our way out of this as I think Jones will get more out of what he has got and the new players will improve. I also think we may fall into the relegation zone before we make the great escape. |
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Post by valleyfaithful on Feb 2, 2024 12:56:44 GMT
While there's an outside chance we stay up this year if Jones manages to actually sure up the defence and get some goals without any wingers in the side, but I certainly hope if the worst happens and we're relegated, that the owners have given Jones assurances there won't be a firesale for our best players, they'll continue to fund for another year and give him resources to aid the rebuild. With the squad we have I don't think we survive, but if we can get a full rebuild next year with the owner's support then I'd accept it tbh. I’m very surprised by this comment. Football is inherently unpredictable so it’s obvious we could go down. It’s most certainly a possibility. However, do you really believe we only have an outside chance of staying up? That seems very pessimistic. Four questions to consider. First, do you think Michael Appleton was underperforming given the players he had available or performing as expected given his squad. If the latter, I assume you think he was unlucky to be sacked? Second, do you think an average Head Coach would get more out of our squad of players than Appleton did? Third, do you think Nathan Jones is an average, above average or below average coach? Fourth, allowing for incomings, outgoings and players returning from injury, do you think the squad is stronger or weaker now than it was during Appleton’s last ten games in charge? Worth bearing in mind here that despite a dreadful run of results we’re still not in the bottom four. I think my current thoughts of where we are have a few factors that really concern me:
1. Winless in three months. That in itself is a real issue, but the fact the team must have no confidence at all. Granted, Jones may start to instill that but it won't be a quick process.
2. Following on from point 1, our February games are Derby, Reading, Lincoln, Bolton, Portsmouth & Derby again. Any chance Jones has of installing confidence will be shot assuming it's not an instant turnaround and we lose the first two.
3. Looking at that fixture list we'd be extremely fortunate to pick up more than 5 points for the entire month, in that time I can see Wycombe & Reading especially picking up more points than us (that's without their game in hand each) which puts us one place off the drop zone. Port Vale also have three games in hand to turn around a 1 point (+ GD) defecit which they almost undoubtedly would.
4. If the above happens we're in the relegation zone, we have 10 games remaining to turn our fortunes around with a team that has most likely taken a battering in February when you consider who we're up against.
5. Ashley Maynard-Brewer is our goalkeeper and we have no #10.
Unless Jones is a miracle worker or Appleton is criminally inept and it turns out our defenders weren't all that bad after all, we're well and truely in trouble. Our best hope is Reading's crisis having an impact on the team - but no signs of that yet considering they've won 2 in their last 5 league games.
When you consider the facts above, it's not pessemistic at all, it's actually very realistic when you consider form, what the next 17 games look like and the order they come in.
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Post by seriouslyred on Feb 2, 2024 13:09:41 GMT
I’m very surprised by this comment. Football is inherently unpredictable so it’s obvious we could go down. It’s most certainly a possibility. However, do you really believe we only have an outside chance of staying up? That seems very pessimistic. Four questions to consider. First, do you think Michael Appleton was underperforming given the players he had available or performing as expected given his squad. If the latter, I assume you think he was unlucky to be sacked? Second, do you think an average Head Coach would get more out of our squad of players than Appleton did? Third, do you think Nathan Jones is an average, above average or below average coach? Fourth, allowing for incomings, outgoings and players returning from injury, do you think the squad is stronger or weaker now than it was during Appleton’s last ten games in charge? Worth bearing in mind here that despite a dreadful run of results we’re still not in the bottom four. I think my current thoughts of where we are have a few factors that really concern me:
1. Winless in three months. That in itself is a real issue, but the fact the team must have no confidence at all. Granted, Jones may start to instill that but it won't be a quick process.
2. Following on from point 1, our February games are Derby, Reading, Lincoln, Bolton, Portsmouth & Derby again. Any chance Jones has of installing confidence will be shot assuming it's not an instant turnaround and we lose the first two.
3. Looking at that fixture list we'd be extremely fortunate to pick up more than 5 points for the entire month, in that time I can see Wycombe & Reading especially picking up more points than us (that's without their game in hand each) which puts us one place off the drop zone. Port Vale also have three games in hand to turn around a 1 point (+ GD) defecit which they almost undoubtedly would.
4. If the above happens we're in the relegation zone, we have 10 games remaining to turn our fortunes around with a team that has most likely taken a battering in February when you consider who we're up against.
5. Ashley Maynard-Brewer is our goalkeeper and we have no #10. Unless Jones is a miracle worker or Appleton is criminally inept and it turns out our defenders weren't all that bad after all, we're well and truely in trouble. Our best hope is Reading's crisis having an impact on the team - but no signs of that yet considering they've won 2 in their last 5 league games. When you consider the facts above, it's not pessemistic at all, it's actually very realistic when you consider form, what the next 17 games look like and the order they come in.
How much of the above is fact, and how much predictions and scenarios? I hadn't considered our February fixtures as I rarely look beyond the next game. The key to solving this mess is winning a game, and then another. So perhaps we focus upon progress and our chances vs Lincoln and Reading. As well as considering with open eyes just what our new manager / head coach might be able to deliver with our current squad. And that's all gonna be speculation until we see a few games. Just for good measure add in some cameo appearances from Aneke and there's absolutely no certainty either way! |
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lewisham
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Post by lewisham on Feb 2, 2024 13:13:40 GMT
What a great opportunity for whoever comes in to have on their CV that they turned this shit show around!
Who has got the bottle and is up for the challenge? Good luck!
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Post by mersthamred on Feb 2, 2024 13:15:37 GMT
We have been a basket case for a long, long time. If NJ is appointed he'll need our patience to put it right...it's a lot deeper than just playing Alfie in the right position!
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Post by Occam’s Razor on Feb 2, 2024 13:24:18 GMT
I think my current thoughts of where we are have a few factors that really concern me:
1. Winless in three months. That in itself is a real issue, but the fact the team must have no confidence at all. Granted, Jones may start to instill that but it won't be a quick process.
2. Following on from point 1, our February games are Derby, Reading, Lincoln, Bolton, Portsmouth & Derby again. Any chance Jones has of installing confidence will be shot assuming it's not an instant turnaround and we lose the first two.
3. Looking at that fixture list we'd be extremely fortunate to pick up more than 5 points for the entire month, in that time I can see Wycombe & Reading especially picking up more points than us (that's without their game in hand each) which puts us one place off the drop zone. Port Vale also have three games in hand to turn around a 1 point (+ GD) defecit which they almost undoubtedly would.
4. If the above happens we're in the relegation zone, we have 10 games remaining to turn our fortunes around with a team that has most likely taken a battering in February when you consider who we're up against.
5. Ashley Maynard-Brewer is our goalkeeper and we have no #10. Unless Jones is a miracle worker or Appleton is criminally inept and it turns out our defenders weren't all that bad after all, we're well and truely in trouble. Our best hope is Reading's crisis having an impact on the team - but no signs of that yet considering they've won 2 in their last 5 league games. When you consider the facts above, it's not pessemistic at all, it's actually very realistic when you consider form, what the next 17 games look like and the order they come in.
How much of the above is fact, and how much predictions and scenarios? I hadn't considered our February fixtures as I rarely look beyond the next game. The key to solving this mess is winning a game, and then another. So perhaps we focus upon progress and our chances vs Lincoln and Reading. As well as considering with open eyes just what our new manager / head coach might be able to deliver with our current squad. And that's all gonna be speculation until we see a few games. Just for good measure as in some cameo appearances from Aneke and there's absolutely Niton certain either way! Can’t believe that a stats -focused fan like you doesn’t look at our forthcoming fixtures 🤔 52- 54 points should keep us this season. We still need around 6 wins & a couple of scraps. |
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Post by bexleyboy on Feb 2, 2024 13:24:23 GMT
We have been a basket case for a long, long time. If NJ is appointed he'll need our patience to put it right...it's a lot deeper than just playing Alfie in the right position! We’re not anymore with these new owners .. this is not just about last couple of years we have been in decline appox 16/18 years all Started under Richard Murray … so it’s not going to be solved in 6 months ….. stability is the word |
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Post by bexleyboy on Feb 2, 2024 13:28:10 GMT
I’m very surprised by this comment. Football is inherently unpredictable so it’s obvious we could go down. It’s most certainly a possibility. However, do you really believe we only have an outside chance of staying up? That seems very pessimistic. Four questions to consider. First, do you think Michael Appleton was underperforming given the players he had available or performing as expected given his squad. If the latter, I assume you think he was unlucky to be sacked? Second, do you think an average Head Coach would get more out of our squad of players than Appleton did? Third, do you think Nathan Jones is an average, above average or below average coach? Fourth, allowing for incomings, outgoings and players returning from injury, do you think the squad is stronger or weaker now than it was during Appleton’s last ten games in charge? Worth bearing in mind here that despite a dreadful run of results we’re still not in the bottom four. I think my current thoughts of where we are have a few factors that really concern me:
1. Winless in three months. That in itself is a real issue, but the fact the team must have no confidence at all. Granted, Jones may start to instill that but it won't be a quick process.
2. Following on from point 1, our February games are Derby, Reading, Lincoln, Bolton, Portsmouth & Derby again. Any chance Jones has of installing confidence will be shot assuming it's not an instant turnaround and we lose the first two.
3. Looking at that fixture list we'd be extremely fortunate to pick up more than 5 points for the entire month, in that time I can see Wycombe & Reading especially picking up more points than us (that's without their game in hand each) which puts us one place off the drop zone. Port Vale also have three games in hand to turn around a 1 point (+ GD) defecit which they almost undoubtedly would.
4. If the above happens we're in the relegation zone, we have 10 games remaining to turn our fortunes around with a team that has most likely taken a battering in February when you consider who we're up against.
5. Ashley Maynard-Brewer is our goalkeeper and we have no #10. Unless Jones is a miracle worker or Appleton is criminally inept and it turns out our defenders weren't all that bad after all, we're well and truely in trouble. Our best hope is Reading's crisis having an impact on the team - but no signs of that yet considering they've won 2 in their last 5 league games. When you consider the facts above, it's not pessemistic at all, it's actually very realistic when you consider form, what the next 17 games look like and the order they come in.
Think what your missing is we know why we hit this bad run it’s clear the injuries to lose 8/10 players very quickly stopped us in our tracks we were heading nicely up the league scoring goals especially at home .. and then also add the horrendous decisions that went against us .. how many points we lost through them ? |
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Post by Mundell on Feb 2, 2024 13:38:35 GMT
I’m very surprised by this comment. Football is inherently unpredictable so it’s obvious we could go down. It’s most certainly a possibility. However, do you really believe we only have an outside chance of staying up? That seems very pessimistic. Four questions to consider. First, do you think Michael Appleton was underperforming given the players he had available or performing as expected given his squad. If the latter, I assume you think he was unlucky to be sacked? Second, do you think an average Head Coach would get more out of our squad of players than Appleton did? Third, do you think Nathan Jones is an average, above average or below average coach? Fourth, allowing for incomings, outgoings and players returning from injury, do you think the squad is stronger or weaker now than it was during Appleton’s last ten games in charge? Worth bearing in mind here that despite a dreadful run of results we’re still not in the bottom four. I think my current thoughts of where we are have a few factors that really concern me:
1. Winless in three months. That in itself is a real issue, but the fact the team must have no confidence at all. Granted, Jones may start to instill that but it won't be a quick process.
2. Following on from point 1, our February games are Derby, Reading, Lincoln, Bolton, Portsmouth & Derby again. Any chance Jones has of installing confidence will be shot assuming it's not an instant turnaround and we lose the first two.
3. Looking at that fixture list we'd be extremely fortunate to pick up more than 5 points for the entire month, in that time I can see Wycombe & Reading especially picking up more points than us (that's without their game in hand each) which puts us one place off the drop zone. Port Vale also have three games in hand to turn around a 1 point (+ GD) defecit which they almost undoubtedly would.
4. If the above happens we're in the relegation zone, we have 10 games remaining to turn our fortunes around with a team that has most likely taken a battering in February when you consider who we're up against.
5. Ashley Maynard-Brewer is our goalkeeper and we have no #10.
Unless Jones is a miracle worker or Appleton is criminally inept and it turns out our defenders weren't all that bad after all, we're well and truely in trouble. Our best hope is Reading's crisis having an impact on the team - but no signs of that yet considering they've won 2 in their last 5 league games.
When you consider the facts above, it's not pessemistic at all, it's actually very realistic when you consider form, what the next 17 games look like and the order they come in.
I think what you’ve done there is put together what appears to be a plausible narrative and it probably describes one of the scenarios in which we might go down. However, as I’m sure you know, when you string together a number of events which, individually, are very plausible you quickly create a combination of outcomes which is really quite unlikely. What you’ve set out could happen, but there are lots of other possibilities. For what it’s worth, the bookmaker consensus appears to be that we have around a one in ten chance of being relegated. That’s uncomfortably high, and it will probably rise if we lose tomorrow, but we are a very long way from having only an outside chance of staying up. |
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Post by watameires on Feb 2, 2024 13:50:53 GMT
I think my current thoughts of where we are have a few factors that really concern me:
1. Winless in three months. That in itself is a real issue, but the fact the team must have no confidence at all. Granted, Jones may start to instill that but it won't be a quick process.
2. Following on from point 1, our February games are Derby, Reading, Lincoln, Bolton, Portsmouth & Derby again. Any chance Jones has of installing confidence will be shot assuming it's not an instant turnaround and we lose the first two.
3. Looking at that fixture list we'd be extremely fortunate to pick up more than 5 points for the entire month, in that time I can see Wycombe & Reading especially picking up more points than us (that's without their game in hand each) which puts us one place off the drop zone. Port Vale also have three games in hand to turn around a 1 point (+ GD) defecit which they almost undoubtedly would.
4. If the above happens we're in the relegation zone, we have 10 games remaining to turn our fortunes around with a team that has most likely taken a battering in February when you consider who we're up against.
5. Ashley Maynard-Brewer is our goalkeeper and we have no #10. Unless Jones is a miracle worker or Appleton is criminally inept and it turns out our defenders weren't all that bad after all, we're well and truely in trouble. Our best hope is Reading's crisis having an impact on the team - but no signs of that yet considering they've won 2 in their last 5 league games. When you consider the facts above, it's not pessemistic at all, it's actually very realistic when you consider form, what the next 17 games look like and the order they come in.
Think what your missing is we know why we hit this bad run it’s clear the injuries to lose 8/10 players very quickly stopped us in our tracks we were heading nicely up the league scoring goals especially at home .. and then also add the horrendous decisions that went against us .. how many points we lost through them ? can someone remind how you “mute” wums? |
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Post by valleyfaithful on Feb 2, 2024 13:54:45 GMT
I think my current thoughts of where we are have a few factors that really concern me:
1. Winless in three months. That in itself is a real issue, but the fact the team must have no confidence at all. Granted, Jones may start to instill that but it won't be a quick process.
2. Following on from point 1, our February games are Derby, Reading, Lincoln, Bolton, Portsmouth & Derby again. Any chance Jones has of installing confidence will be shot assuming it's not an instant turnaround and we lose the first two.
3. Looking at that fixture list we'd be extremely fortunate to pick up more than 5 points for the entire month, in that time I can see Wycombe & Reading especially picking up more points than us (that's without their game in hand each) which puts us one place off the drop zone. Port Vale also have three games in hand to turn around a 1 point (+ GD) defecit which they almost undoubtedly would.
4. If the above happens we're in the relegation zone, we have 10 games remaining to turn our fortunes around with a team that has most likely taken a battering in February when you consider who we're up against.
5. Ashley Maynard-Brewer is our goalkeeper and we have no #10.
Unless Jones is a miracle worker or Appleton is criminally inept and it turns out our defenders weren't all that bad after all, we're well and truely in trouble. Our best hope is Reading's crisis having an impact on the team - but no signs of that yet considering they've won 2 in their last 5 league games.
When you consider the facts above, it's not pessemistic at all, it's actually very realistic when you consider form, what the next 17 games look like and the order they come in.
I think what you’ve done there is put together what appears to be a plausible narrative and it probably describes one of the scenarios in which we might go down. However, as I’m sure you know, when you string together a number of events which, individually, are very plausible you quickly create a combination of outcomes which is really quite unlikely. What you’ve set out could happen, but there are lots of other possibilities. For what it’s worth, the bookmaker consensus appears to be that we have around a one in ten chance of being relegated. That’s uncomfortably high, and it will probably rise if we lose tomorrow, but we are a very long way from having only an outside chance of staying up. Respectfully I don’t view this as just a plausible narrative. Based on form factor it’s the most realistic outcomes. If you have the time, and you feel inclined, I’d like you to point out where I’m wrong in the above summary or where you feel my predictions have a more likely alternative? The only thing that gives me some level of hope is the injured players coming back and injecting new blood and hunger into the squad, ironically, Aneke especially. |
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Post by valleyfaithful on Feb 2, 2024 13:57:48 GMT
I think my current thoughts of where we are have a few factors that really concern me:
1. Winless in three months. That in itself is a real issue, but the fact the team must have no confidence at all. Granted, Jones may start to instill that but it won't be a quick process.
2. Following on from point 1, our February games are Derby, Reading, Lincoln, Bolton, Portsmouth & Derby again. Any chance Jones has of installing confidence will be shot assuming it's not an instant turnaround and we lose the first two.
3. Looking at that fixture list we'd be extremely fortunate to pick up more than 5 points for the entire month, in that time I can see Wycombe & Reading especially picking up more points than us (that's without their game in hand each) which puts us one place off the drop zone. Port Vale also have three games in hand to turn around a 1 point (+ GD) defecit which they almost undoubtedly would.
4. If the above happens we're in the relegation zone, we have 10 games remaining to turn our fortunes around with a team that has most likely taken a battering in February when you consider who we're up against.
5. Ashley Maynard-Brewer is our goalkeeper and we have no #10. Unless Jones is a miracle worker or Appleton is criminally inept and it turns out our defenders weren't all that bad after all, we're well and truely in trouble. Our best hope is Reading's crisis having an impact on the team - but no signs of that yet considering they've won 2 in their last 5 league games. When you consider the facts above, it's not pessemistic at all, it's actually very realistic when you consider form, what the next 17 games look like and the order they come in.
How much of the above is fact, and how much predictions and scenarios? I hadn't considered our February fixtures as I rarely look beyond the next game. The key to solving this mess is winning a game, and then another. So perhaps we focus upon progress and our chances vs Lincoln and Reading. As well as considering with open eyes just what our new manager / head coach might be able to deliver with our current squad. And that's all gonna be speculation until we see a few games. Just for good measure as in some cameo appearances from Aneke and there's absolutely Niton certain either way! I’d say 1, 4 & 5 are fact. 2 & 3 are conjecture but the most likely outcomes. If we take our chances and get 6 points against Lincoln and Reading, we’ll be in a much better place. But as I said, winless since November so the chance of instantly picking up 6 points just because we need them is slim to me. I do agree Aneke’s cameos can be point-winners. |
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Post by Occam’s Razor on Feb 2, 2024 14:01:01 GMT
We have been a basket case for a long, long time. If NJ is appointed he'll need our patience to put it right...it's a lot deeper than just playing Alfie in the right position! We’re not anymore with these new owners .. this is not just about last couple of years we have been in decline appox 16/18 years all Started under Richard Murray … so it’s not going to be solved in 6 months ….. stability is the word Worth reminding everyone in response to this , in those same 18 years, bexleyboy was the No.1 public fan & defender of Murray, Slater & Jiminez, Roland, Matt Southall, the Primark Sheikh Nimer, Chris Farnell & Thomas TwoTits. |
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Post by Mundell on Feb 2, 2024 14:25:29 GMT
I think what you’ve done there is put together what appears to be a plausible narrative and it probably describes one of the scenarios in which we might go down. However, as I’m sure you know, when you string together a number of events which, individually, are very plausible you quickly create a combination of outcomes which is really quite unlikely. What you’ve set out could happen, but there are lots of other possibilities. For what it’s worth, the bookmaker consensus appears to be that we have around a one in ten chance of being relegated. That’s uncomfortably high, and it will probably rise if we lose tomorrow, but we are a very long way from having only an outside chance of staying up. Respectfully I don’t view this as just a plausible narrative. Based on form factor it’s the most realistic outcomes. If you have the time, and you feel inclined, I’d like you to point out where I’m wrong in the above summary or where you feel my predictions have a more likely alternative? The only thing that gives me some level of hope is the injured players coming back and injecting new blood and hunger into the squad, ironically, Aneke especially. What you may have done is put together what you believe to be “the single most likely outcome”, but even if you’re right that single most likely outcome can still be quite unlikely. The point is that there are many other possible outcomes. I don’t need to point out where you might be wrong. I’m simply saying that the probability of all of your forecasts being right in one scenario (not individually) is low. Why do you think the bookmakers think our chances of survival are around 90%? |
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Post by MurciaAl on Feb 2, 2024 14:25:39 GMT
May and Ladapo need service. Our most creative player we gave away to Derby. Agree with your first sentence certainly, we should have found a number a number 10 at least. But to say we gave CBT away is a bit much. The lad himself said he wanted a move back home, he only had 6 months left on his contract and we got a reasonable price for him. Don´t understand what else the club could do under the circumstances! |
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Post by clarky on Feb 2, 2024 14:27:51 GMT
I think my current thoughts of where we are have a few factors that really concern me:
1. Winless in three months. That in itself is a real issue, but the fact the team must have no confidence at all. Granted, Jones may start to instill that but it won't be a quick process.
2. Following on from point 1, our February games are Derby, Reading, Lincoln, Bolton, Portsmouth & Derby again. Any chance Jones has of installing confidence will be shot assuming it's not an instant turnaround and we lose the first two.
3. Looking at that fixture list we'd be extremely fortunate to pick up more than 5 points for the entire month, in that time I can see Wycombe & Reading especially picking up more points than us (that's without their game in hand each) which puts us one place off the drop zone. Port Vale also have three games in hand to turn around a 1 point (+ GD) defecit which they almost undoubtedly would.
4. If the above happens we're in the relegation zone, we have 10 games remaining to turn our fortunes around with a team that has most likely taken a battering in February when you consider who we're up against.
5. Ashley Maynard-Brewer is our goalkeeper and we have no #10. Unless Jones is a miracle worker or Appleton is criminally inept and it turns out our defenders weren't all that bad after all, we're well and truely in trouble. Our best hope is Reading's crisis having an impact on the team - but no signs of that yet considering they've won 2 in their last 5 league games. When you consider the facts above, it's not pessemistic at all, it's actually very realistic when you consider form, what the next 17 games look like and the order they come in.
Think what your missing is we know why we hit this bad run it’s clear the injuries to lose 8/10 players very quickly stopped us in our tracks we were heading nicely up the league scoring goals especially at home .. and then also add the horrendous decisions that went against us .. how many points we lost through them ? I grant you injuries didn't help but our defence in front of very average keepers has been poor all season. Yes we were scoring goals with CBT scoring 8 with a further 8 assists, he has gone and has not been replaced. May has stopped scoring and our last two efforts have been own goals. You always blame the refs and yes the standard is appalling but it is the same for every club in the league not just us,. If you think we are the only club losing points through bad decisions then you are clearly more deluded than you aim to be. |
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Post by clarky on Feb 2, 2024 14:31:43 GMT
May and Ladapo need service. Our most creative player we gave away to Derby. Agree with your first sentence certainly, we should have found a number a number 10 at least. But to say we gave CBT away is a bit much. The lad himself said he wanted a move back home, he only had 6 months left on his contract and we got a reasonable price for him. Don´t understand what else the club could do under the circumstances! We knew he was going what serious efforts did we make to replace his creativity? The club could have done more as they have also known for a few weeks that Fraser was going as well but the pair were replaced with defenders and defensive midfielders. |
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Post by valleyfaithful on Feb 2, 2024 14:33:07 GMT
Respectfully I don’t view this as just a plausible narrative. Based on form factor it’s the most realistic outcomes. If you have the time, and you feel inclined, I’d like you to point out where I’m wrong in the above summary or where you feel my predictions have a more likely alternative? The only thing that gives me some level of hope is the injured players coming back and injecting new blood and hunger into the squad, ironically, Aneke especially. What you may have done is put together what you believe to be “the single most likely outcome”, but even if you’re right that single most likely outcome can still be quite unlikely. The point is that there are many other possible outcomes. I don’t need to point out where you might be wrong. I’m simply saying that the probability of all of your forecasts being right in one scenario (not individually) is low. Why do you think the bookmakers think our chances of survival are around 90%? In terms of the single most likely outcome, yes that is my opinion of how I believe things will turn out, but the point I'm not following or I haven't yet heard you address yet, is my outcome isn't pie in the sky. It's based on form, upcoming fixtures and where points will come from for us.
As I've said in a previous reply, every team around us has picked up the odd win here and there, we simply haven't. Aside from that, the performances we're putting out just gives me no confidence that is changing any time soon, we're not losing to unlucky shots and referee decisions but systematic errors in our gameplan and individual mistakes.
If Jones comes in and bangs then into shape then the bookies will have been correct, I suspect their pricing is based on the fact we seemingly have Jones coming in, have experienced players like Ladapo, Gillesphey, REG and Connor Coventry who have all been Championship or higher - but not one of them have put on a performance of that level yet.
I watch every single game and have done for nearly thirty years, I've never seen such a spineless, weak set of players than those who are putting on the shirt for us now. That's key to why I've made my assessment.
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Post by Occam’s Razor on Feb 2, 2024 14:48:37 GMT
Respectfully I don’t view this as just a plausible narrative. Based on form factor it’s the most realistic outcomes. If you have the time, and you feel inclined, I’d like you to point out where I’m wrong in the above summary or where you feel my predictions have a more likely alternative? The only thing that gives me some level of hope is the injured players coming back and injecting new blood and hunger into the squad, ironically, Aneke especially. What you may have done is put together what you believe to be “the single most likely outcome”, but even if you’re right that single most likely outcome can still be quite unlikely. The point is that there are many other possible outcomes. I don’t need to point out where you might be wrong. I’m simply saying that the probability of all of your forecasts being right in one scenario (not individually) is low. Why do you think the bookmakers think our chances of survival are around 90%? I’ve noticed that you’ve become more combative in your tone in recent days MundellThis surprises me , as the investors have done a good job with both new players & Nathan Jones, and won over even sceptics like me, let alone early supporters of the regime like you. I wonder if your newly discovered belligerence is more to do with having been found out on the dud SMT ? It was gratifying to find myself in rare agreement with Rick Everitt earlier today, that Messrs Rodwell, Methven and Scott are the one remaining blemish on SE7 Partners record. |
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Post by Mundell on Feb 2, 2024 14:53:11 GMT
What you may have done is put together what you believe to be “the single most likely outcome”, but even if you’re right that single most likely outcome can still be quite unlikely. The point is that there are many other possible outcomes. I don’t need to point out where you might be wrong. I’m simply saying that the probability of all of your forecasts being right in one scenario (not individually) is low. Why do you think the bookmakers think our chances of survival are around 90%? In terms of the single most likely outcome, yes that is my opinion of how I believe things will turn out, but the point I'm not following or I haven't yet heard you address yet, is my outcome isn't pie in the sky. It's based on form, upcoming fixtures and where points will come from for us.
As I've said in a previous reply, every team around us has picked up the odd win here and there, we simply haven't. Aside from that, the performances we're putting out just gives me no confidence that is changing any time soon, we're not losing to unlucky shots and referee decisions but systematic errors in our gameplan and individual mistakes.
If Jones comes in and bangs then into shape then the bookies will have been correct, I suspect their pricing is based on the fact we seemingly have Jones coming in, have experienced players like Ladapo, Gillesphey, REG and Connor Coventry who have all been Championship or higher - but not one of them have put on a performance of that level yet.
I watch every single game and have done for nearly thirty years, I've never seen such a spineless, weak set of players than those who are putting on the shirt for us now. That's key to why I've made my assessment.
As I said above, even if you’re right that your scenario is the single most likely outcome it can still be a low probability event because it represents the combination of a series of individual events which are all uncertain. In your mind you might be “certain” we’ll lose to Derby tomorrow and that is by far the single most likely outcome. It’s probably not much than 55% likely though. Can I respectfully suggest you think about my question above. Why do the bookmakers think our odds of survival are as high as 90%? That is a very long way from your statement. It may be that you have a blinding insight they lack or it might be that you’ve missed something significant. Either way, it might be worth it for you to reflect on the question. To be clear, I’m not looking for an answer. |
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Post by Occam’s Razor on Feb 2, 2024 14:53:28 GMT
Think what your missing is we know why we hit this bad run it’s clear the injuries to lose 8/10 players very quickly stopped us in our tracks we were heading nicely up the league scoring goals especially at home .. and then also add the horrendous decisions that went against us .. how many points we lost through them ? I grant you injuries didn't help but our defence in front of very average keepers has been poor all season. Yes we were scoring goals with CBT scoring 8 with a further 8 assists, he has gone and has not been replaced. May has stopped scoring and our last two efforts have been own goals. You always blame the refs and yes the standard is appalling but it is the same for every club in the league not just us,. If you think we are the only club losing points through bad decisions then you are clearly more deluded than you aim to be. “We were heading nicely up the league” 😂🙄 WUM 🥇🥇 |
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Post by earlpurple on Feb 2, 2024 14:57:27 GMT
We have seen before a change in coach suddenly bring about a turnabout in fortunes with the same set of players, both at our club and at others.
Is Nathan Jones the kind of coach who can do that, or is he one who blames the fact it "isn't his squad of players", and his last role at Southampton saw them end up getting relegated after 11 consecutive years in the top flight. It worked at Luton because expectations were low. Each time they went up a league they weren't expected to be that competitive there.
If he joined and we did go down this season we may well bounce straight back but how prepared would we then be for a second promotion. With Luton, they went up twice in a row but there wasn't a relegation that preceded it.
Apart from Manchester City in 1998-99-2000 I don't recall a time a team got relegated followed by 2 straight promotions, although in some ways Coventry City have come close. They were relegated in 2017 then came back up in 2018 and did the double over us in 2019 but weren't in the playoffs, and then went up in 2020 and have been quite competitive in that league. Of course they also went through many ownership issues.
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Post by bexleyboy on Feb 2, 2024 15:09:29 GMT
May and Ladapo need service. Our most creative player we gave away to Derby. We did not give him away he went on strike refused to play the. Said he wanted to move back north |
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Post by valleyfaithful on Feb 2, 2024 15:09:48 GMT
In terms of the single most likely outcome, yes that is my opinion of how I believe things will turn out, but the point I'm not following or I haven't yet heard you address yet, is my outcome isn't pie in the sky. It's based on form, upcoming fixtures and where points will come from for us.
As I've said in a previous reply, every team around us has picked up the odd win here and there, we simply haven't. Aside from that, the performances we're putting out just gives me no confidence that is changing any time soon, we're not losing to unlucky shots and referee decisions but systematic errors in our gameplan and individual mistakes.
If Jones comes in and bangs then into shape then the bookies will have been correct, I suspect their pricing is based on the fact we seemingly have Jones coming in, have experienced players like Ladapo, Gillesphey, REG and Connor Coventry who have all been Championship or higher - but not one of them have put on a performance of that level yet.
I watch every single game and have done for nearly thirty years, I've never seen such a spineless, weak set of players than those who are putting on the shirt for us now. That's key to why I've made my assessment.
As I said above, even if you’re right that your scenario is the single most likely outcome it can still be a low probability event because it represents the combination of a series of individual events which are all uncertain. In your mind you might be “certain” we’ll lose to Derby tomorrow and that is by far the single most likely outcome. It’s probably not much than 55% likely though. Can I respectfully suggest you think about my question above. Why do the bookmakers think our odds of survival are as high as 90%? That is a very long way from your statement. It may be that you have a blinding insight they lack or it might be that you’ve missed something significant. Either way, it might be worth it for you to reflect on the question. To be clear, I’m not looking for an answer. I don't want this to come across the wrong way, because I find I get on with you very well on here and find your posts measured and concise. That said, I find one or two of your comments here as very condescending. You don't need "blinding insight" to understand form of us vs the opposition we'll be facing over the next four weeks. I think it's possibly you who should reflect on our recent performances and maybe work out what it is that is giving you so much optimism to suggest my summary above is so wrong. Having reflected on my thoughts above over the last three or four games, knowing what would be coming next, I don't think I'm far off the truth. It's not an estimate to say that by our current form and that of the last three months, we will be going down - it's fact. There's no debating that because mathetmatically it's a true statement, unless something turns around that is our lot. The part that sparks debate is specifically *what* will turn our fortunes around - that could be Nathan Jones, that could be Chuks Aneke coming back from injury, that could be Kayne coming in at RB as Dani Alves reincarnate. However, speaking of probability, it's more probably that our poor form would continue, as we have three months of recent evidence. The probability of three months of poor form instantly changing is less likely and intangible, so I'd say you're basing your opinion more on optimism than fact.
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Post by valleyvon on Feb 2, 2024 15:12:39 GMT
I wonder if any new coach announcement won’t be made until we have beaten derby tomorrow (lol) so not to distract from the coaching going on for the game?
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