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Post by Deleted on Sept 4, 2014 20:50:15 GMT
In closing I must address the pomposity of those demanding clarification of exit strategies and network roles. Both in real terms are meaningless. Can we please move past business strategy 101? Having spent 2 decades in “new” business engineering I can assure every aspect of any business plan changes over time in line with the reality of the marketplace in which you try to operate. It has to evolve in line with every change in the marketplace. What may make commercial sense in Yr. 1 may not make commercial sense in Yr. 5. Do you really expect any business organisation to publically share such commercially sensitive information? It is nonsense. Spot on, Grapevine. You've put it far more eloquently than I could. Pomposity might be too strong a word, though; it just betrays that some supporters seem to live in a parallel universe to the real one.
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Post by seriouslyred on Sept 4, 2014 21:11:53 GMT
He doesn't have to publish anything as the value proposition is obvious. Many CAFC fans are I'm sure too ground down by the last seven or eight seasons to see it clearly so I checked this out with a hedge fund analyst. In summary the minute M.Duchatelet land in the play-offs he has made a turn on his investment. For there is a 25% chance of promotion and it is therefore legitimate to count 25% of the next five years cash flows as part of a business valuation. Given that a yo-yo club secures £120m by winning at Wembley and the owner might spend an extra £5-10m a season, the net cash is £90m or 25% is £22m. So M.Duchatelet might sell having turned us around or he might see it through to promotion where clubs trade for £100-200m? Or maybe he stays on and feeds players from Europe into the Valley at 19-21 and then sells them at 25. Who knows but I'm going to enjoy the ride!
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2014 9:22:46 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2014 9:47:31 GMT
He doesn't have to publish anything as the value proposition is obvious. Many CAFC fans are I'm sure too ground down by the last seven or eight seasons to see it clearly so I checked this out with a hedge fund analyst. In summary the minute M.Duchatelet land in the play-offs he has made a turn on his investment. For there is a 25% chance of promotion and it is therefore legitimate to count 25% of the next five years cash flows as part of a business valuation. Given that a yo-yo club secures £120m by winning at Wembley and the owner might spend an extra £5-10m a season, the net cash is £90m or 25% is £22m. So M.Duchatelet might sell having turned us around or he might see it through to promotion where clubs trade for £100-200m? Or maybe he stays on and feeds players from Europe into the Valley at 19-21 and then sells them at 25. Who knows but I'm going to enjoy the ride! Are you sure SR? Not sure that any investor would buy that valuation even if finishing in the play-offs increases your chances of promotion in subsequent years. They buy a Championship club, they get a Championship club with no guarantees. The club's value will of course increase with promotion, but unless RD does what he did at Liege and takes significant money out of the club in dividends he won't realise that until he sells the club. Our cost base will increase significantly in the Premiership, and we ought to be cautious with such fag packet valuations because relegation can be catastrophic even with the parachute payments; as indeed we experienced not so long ago ourselves, with a much smaller income gap than exists today. I agree it will probably be an enjoyable ride, absolutely, and I feel as optimistic as I have done at the club as I can remember in recent times - but as I said before, I'm still personally cautious because no businessman of his experience and success will be taking on a football club altruistically. How he intends to make his money is a big consideration for my personal comfort levels, as indeed it was re Cash et al.
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Post by seriouslyred on Sept 5, 2014 22:14:59 GMT
He doesn't have to publish anything as the value proposition is obvious. Many CAFC fans are I'm sure too ground down by the last seven or eight seasons to see it clearly so I checked this out with a hedge fund analyst. In summary the minute M.Duchatelet land in the play-offs he has made a turn on his investment. For there is a 25% chance of promotion and it is therefore legitimate to count 25% of the next five years cash flows as part of a business valuation. Given that a yo-yo club secures £120m by winning at Wembley and the owner might spend an extra £5-10m a season, the net cash is £90m or 25% is £22m. So M.Duchatelet might sell having turned us around or he might see it through to promotion where clubs trade for £100-200m? Or maybe he stays on and feeds players from Europe into the Valley at 19-21 and then sells them at 25. Who knows but I'm going to enjoy the ride! Are you sure SR? Not sure that any investor would buy that valuation even if finishing in the play-offs increases your chances of promotion in subsequent years. They buy a Championship club, they get a Championship club with no guarantees. The club's value will of course increase with promotion, but unless RD does what he did at Liege and takes significant money out of the club in dividends he won't realise that until he sells the club. Our cost base will increase significantly in the Premiership, and we ought to be cautious with such fag packet valuations because relegation can be catastrophic even with the parachute payments; as indeed we experienced not so long ago ourselves, with a much smaller income gap than exists today. I agree it will probably be an enjoyable ride, absolutely, and I feel as optimistic as I have done at the club as I can remember in recent times - but as I said before, I'm still personally cautious because no businessman of his experience and success will be taking on a football club altruistically. How he intends to make his money is a big consideration for my personal comfort levels, as indeed it was re Cash et al. 100% sure! The ride towards promotion is guaranteed just the time frame is in question! Peeters delivers or gets reinforcements but basically the acquisition over the summer tells me we are set for top six...top two is a different challenge. My post above is talking of the enterprise value of CAFC irrespective of whether we get promoted. We are today worth c. £30-60m because of our potential. Keep going and we move towards £100m And people wonder why Powell went?! Relegation from the Premier league is catastrophic if a club has committed silly money to players...but if CAFC acquires a good squad and good loans we smile....it's all a game!
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Post by mortimerician on Sept 5, 2014 22:48:45 GMT
Have been a supporter of the trust but will be letting it lapse. Someone I know wanted to stand for a position, but they basically made it impossible for her to do so by restricting information about the process. It's a shame but it's the same shit, different day with these people. The whole thing is an exercise in self aggrandisement. The last thing that they appear to want is any kind of democracy, involvement from people outside their clique or most importantly - what is best for the club. Reams was on the money on this.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2014 7:55:42 GMT
Have been a supporter of the trust but will be letting it lapse. Someone I know wanted to stand for a position, but they basically made it impossible for her to do so by restricting information about the process. It's a shame but it's the same shit, different day with these people. The whole thing is an exercise in self aggrandisement. The last thing that they appear to want is any kind of democracy, involvement from people outside their clique or most importantly - what is best for the club. Reams was on the money on this. Dissapointing to read that.
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