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Post by se7sm on Jul 31, 2023 12:14:38 GMT
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Post by se7sm on Jul 31, 2023 12:31:00 GMT
No good struggling to put that picture on. Seems Charlton with bet365 handicap odds +11points 14/1 derby fav +0 18/1
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Post by aaronaldo on Jul 31, 2023 13:07:51 GMT
I know Wigan have points deducted already, but their fans are very confident of the quality of their squad. Still targetting play-offs from what I've seen. I've seen a few 'predictions' from other fans suggesting they will do well to survive etc. They could be a dark horse.. but they will need to start well.
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Post by se7sm on Jul 31, 2023 13:47:06 GMT
Wigan +18. 18/1
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Post by sittingbourne11 on Jul 31, 2023 13:53:55 GMT
Until they donât pay players wages again or the tax man comes calling again and they have more points deducted.
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Post by aaronaldo on Jul 31, 2023 14:19:05 GMT
Until they donât pay players wages again or the tax man comes calling again and they have more points deducted. Yeah there is a chance for that. The fans can't predict this though. They believe their squad is very strong. |
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Post by 1978sussex on Jul 31, 2023 16:53:07 GMT
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Post by smudge7946 on Jul 31, 2023 16:57:58 GMT
What are Wrexhams odds?
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Post by se7sm on Jul 31, 2023 19:26:14 GMT
League Two outright winner odds
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Wrexham â 7/2
Stockport â 5/1
Notts County â 6/1
Gillingham 10/1
Mansfield 12/1
Bradford 12/1
Salford 14/1
MK Dons 16/1
Doncaster 20/1
Swindon 20/1
Tranmere 25/1
Grimsby 25/1
Walsall 33/1
AFC Wimbledon 40/1
Accrington 40/1
Sutton 50/1
Barrow 50/1
Forest Green 50/1
Newport 50/1
Crewe 66/1
Colchester 66/1
Morecambe 66/1
Crawley 80/1
Harrogate 100/1
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Post by richmondse10exile on Aug 2, 2023 7:32:09 GMT
First time in years Iâve had a punt on Charlton for promotion. Based purely on relief over the change in having a more than decent manager and seeming to be making good signings.
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Post by se7sm on Aug 19, 2023 11:47:36 GMT
I know Wigan have points deducted already, but their fans are very confident of the quality of their squad. Still targetting play-offs from what I've seen. I've seen a few 'predictions' from other fans suggesting they will do well to survive etc. They could be a dark horse.. but they will need to start well. not a bad shout that |
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Post by valley on Aug 19, 2023 11:49:00 GMT
I know Wigan have points deducted already, but their fans are very confident of the quality of their squad. Still targetting play-offs from what I've seen. I've seen a few 'predictions' from other fans suggesting they will do well to survive etc. They could be a dark horse.. but they will need to start well. not a bad shout that Wigan winning at the moment. |
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Post by aaronaldo on Aug 19, 2023 12:00:49 GMT
Wigan winning at the moment. Away at Bolton (One of the favourites) as well. Wigan are promotion contenders for me. |
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Post by kings hill addick on Aug 21, 2023 10:31:05 GMT
Our odds on promotion have dropped from 9/2 to 10/1.
Interestingly relegation is 11/1.
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Post by squareball on Aug 21, 2023 10:42:11 GMT
Indeed. The bookies rarely get it wrong. Another thing to note is that teams with better squads than ours havenât had the best start and would be expected to push on better than we can.
Barnsley, Blackpool,Wigan , Derby and Wycombe as examples. Sure some teams at the top wonât stay there like Cambridge and Stevenage but some of the best teams are already up there.
Quick edit
Obviously Wigan have started better than anyone but from -8 .
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Post by surridgecobbler5 on Aug 22, 2023 19:35:09 GMT
Knock it Long Carlton.....The odds are lengthening.
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Post by Bexleyranger on May 2, 2024 17:19:03 GMT
Well reams your a betting man what should we be looking at top six ? , handicap always good odds? Your advice đ¤ Last two seasons ive landed ÂŁ400 in cash out money come May from my Outright bets I have the below in various Outright season bets: Championship: Top 6 wildcards - Sunderland, Millwall & Bristol City Naps - Boro, Ipswich & Leicester Steady Eddies - Coventry & Saints Relegation - Rotherham and Cardiff League one: Top 6 wildcards - Oxford United & Bristol Rovers NAPs - Bolton & Derby Steady Eddies - Pompey, CAFC, Posh, Blackpool Relegation - Cambridge & Cheltenham  League two: Top 7 Wildcards - Tranmere, Doncaster NAPs - Stockport Steady Eddies - Notts County, Gills & Bradford 8 correct in the end. I will be posting my next seasons tips at the close of Summer window. |
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Post by earlpurple on May 2, 2024 19:48:37 GMT
I had Lincoln for top 6, then cashed it out and was worried about what I'd missed out on by cashing it out, but then they blew it.
I'd back both Burnley and Rotherham for bouncing back after relegations this season. Burnley are not down yet but probably will be.
Chesterfield good chance of back-to-back promotions.
Fun reading all the optimism though of the posts above.
I'm pretty certain the coming season will be better than the last, but we may still be somewhat short of a promotion challenge. We might finish 8th which is a lot better than 16th but still short.
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Post by seriouslyred on May 2, 2024 22:26:00 GMT
The opening odds have us at 4th favourites for promotion at 9/2. However, there are six more clubs to be confirmed as members of League One, once all promotion and relegations contests resolved.
In five weeks the summer transfer window opens whilst the season doesn't start for another three months. Plenty of time to acquire new talent and our odds to flex.
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Post by surridgecobbler5 on May 13, 2024 19:52:28 GMT
9/2.....I can only see our odds narrowing
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Post by seriouslyred on May 13, 2024 23:22:52 GMT
9/2.....I can only see our odds narrowing We're 8th favourites on 11/2 now that Championship relegation issues resolved. That's a far better place than three months back! New signings and our first ten games will determine whether we're fancied as favourites for the top six or even promotion - an interesting journey. All down to our club SMT and football management. |
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2024 11:03:19 GMT
I think 8th favourites is just about right. I canât see us finishing in the top six.
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Post by aucklandaddick on May 14, 2024 11:08:10 GMT
I think 8th favourites is just about right. I canât see us finishing in the top six. Blimey Dick, keep the faith mate, NJ hasnât even got started yet bringing in nigh on a new team . |
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Post by eric on May 14, 2024 11:23:44 GMT
Absolutely impossible to predict our promotion chances at this stage , the same for any team . There will be plenty of ins and outs before the season starts . The SMT have been talking it up , maybe to sell season tickets . Probably a lot going on behind the scenes , but we wonât see many done deals for a few weeks yet .
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2024 12:10:30 GMT
I think 8th favourites is just about right. I canât see us finishing in the top six. Blimey Dick, keep the faith mate, NJ hasnât even got started yet bringing in nigh on a new team . . Too many years as a Charlton supporter.đ |
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Post by aucklandaddick on May 14, 2024 13:13:47 GMT
Blimey Dick, keep the faith mate, NJ hasnât even got started yet bringing in nigh on a new team . . Too many years as a Charlton supporter.đ Me too mateâŚ.đ¤ŁâŚ..problem is we all get so burnt & blinkered on what has gone on in the past and expect exactly the same in the future until proven otherwiseâŚ....I think this lot have realised the mistakes they have made when they took over and have entrusted NJ to get the right squad in to challenge next seasonâŚ..and I think he will đ |
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Post by Mundell on May 14, 2024 13:14:16 GMT
The following probabilities give a sense of how the bookmakers currently see League One next season. Iâve taken the SkyBet odds to win the League, made an assumption about Bolton/Oxfordâs and Crawley/Creweâs chances and normalised for the bookiesâ margin so that the probabilities sum to one hundred.
18% Birmingham City
8% Huddersfield Town
7% Wrexham
6% Peterborough, Rotherham, Barnsley
5% Reading
4% Charlton, Lincoln, Blackpool, Wigan
There is a 28% chance that somebody other than those listed will win the League One title. Iâve assumed that the losers of the League One playoff final will have a 7% chance.
Birmingham clearly represent a major outlier here, but the Brummies apart these odds suggest that right now the bookies see League One as being very open. The good news is that this suggests we need to worry primarily about ourselves rather than how âgoodâ the opposition might be. The bad news is that in a very open League there are several teams that might come good. Itâs not going to be easy.
PS BTW, there are probably a number of reasons why Birmingham City appear to be clear favourites, but itâs interesting to note that in the Championship Xg table last season they finished 11th while Huddersfield and Rotherham were placed 21st and 24th respectively. There is perhaps a sense that a decent Championship side found itself relegated so that all things being equal they may turn out to be very competitive in League One.
As Iâve said on many occasions, measures of underlying performance, like Xg, need to be interpreted with care and judgement, but whether we like it or not, based on Xg, our performances under Nathan Jones were no better than they had been under Michael Appleton, hard though that might be to believe. I suspect this might help to explain why weâre not seeing the âJones effectâ in our promotion odds we might have expected.
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Post by seriouslyred on May 14, 2024 15:30:48 GMT
The following probabilities give a sense of how the bookmakers currently see League One next season. Iâve taken the SkyBet odds to win the League, made an assumption about Bolton/Oxfordâs and Crawley/Creweâs chances and normalised for the bookiesâ margin so that the probabilities sum to one hundred. 18% Birmingham City 8% Huddersfield Town 7% Wrexham 6% Peterborough, Rotherham, Barnsley 5% Reading 4% Charlton, Lincoln, Blackpool, Wigan There is a 28% chance that somebody other than those listed will win the League One title. Iâve assumed that the losers of the League One playoff final will have a 7% chance. Birmingham clearly represent a major outlier here, but the Brummies apart these odds suggest that right now the bookies see League One as being very open. The good news is that this suggests we need to worry primarily about ourselves rather than how âgoodâ the opposition might be. The bad news is that in a very open League there are several teams that might come good. Itâs not going to be easy. PS BTW, there are probably a number of reasons why Birmingham City appear to be clear favourites, but itâs interesting to note that in the Championship Xg table last season they finished 11th while Huddersfield and Rotherham were placed 21st and 24th respectively. There is perhaps a sense that a decent Championship side found itself relegated so that all things being equal they may turn out to be very competitive in League One. As Iâve said on many occasions, measures of underlying performance, like Xg, need to be interpreted with care and judgement, but whether we like it or not, based on Xg, our performances under Nathan Jones were no better than they had been under Michael Appleton, hard though that might be to believe. I suspect this might help to explain why weâre not seeing the âJones effectâ in our promotion odds we might have expected. From watching the games and looking at various sites it appears that Nathan Jones delivered top ten performances and results over 16 games with the squad he inherited. For me that sits well with the bookies making us 8th favourites before the window opens and a ball is kicked. The "Jones effect" to date appears to be to take us from 0% promotion chances last February to 11/2 today. Some will be interested Mundell if you can extend that calculation to promotion percentages (summing to 300%), not just winning the league. We might then take another look once the window has closed and we've played 10 games. Ideally our chances improve over time. Amazing how some look for absolute certainty when the best we can do today is estimate our chances. Let's hope CAFC and Jones are successful in identifying targets AND landing them. Fortunately only a few of our rivals will be able to compete / outbid us for talent as long as we are determined. Whether Jones and the rest can deliver competitive winning football remains to be seen, but I'm inclined to back a top six finish once we've landed a few players. |
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Post by Mundell on May 14, 2024 18:47:29 GMT
The following probabilities give a sense of how the bookmakers currently see League One next season. Iâve taken the SkyBet odds to win the League, made an assumption about Bolton/Oxfordâs and Crawley/Creweâs chances and normalised for the bookiesâ margin so that the probabilities sum to one hundred. 18% Birmingham City 8% Huddersfield Town 7% Wrexham 6% Peterborough, Rotherham, Barnsley 5% Reading 4% Charlton, Lincoln, Blackpool, Wigan There is a 28% chance that somebody other than those listed will win the League One title. Iâve assumed that the losers of the League One playoff final will have a 7% chance. Birmingham clearly represent a major outlier here, but the Brummies apart these odds suggest that right now the bookies see League One as being very open. The good news is that this suggests we need to worry primarily about ourselves rather than how âgoodâ the opposition might be. The bad news is that in a very open League there are several teams that might come good. Itâs not going to be easy. PS BTW, there are probably a number of reasons why Birmingham City appear to be clear favourites, but itâs interesting to note that in the Championship Xg table last season they finished 11th while Huddersfield and Rotherham were placed 21st and 24th respectively. There is perhaps a sense that a decent Championship side found itself relegated so that all things being equal they may turn out to be very competitive in League One. As Iâve said on many occasions, measures of underlying performance, like Xg, need to be interpreted with care and judgement, but whether we like it or not, based on Xg, our performances under Nathan Jones were no better than they had been under Michael Appleton, hard though that might be to believe. I suspect this might help to explain why weâre not seeing the âJones effectâ in our promotion odds we might have expected. From watching the games and looking at various sites it appears that Nathan Jones delivered top ten performances and results over 16 games with the squad he inherited. For me that sits well with the bookies making us 8th favourites before the window opens and a ball is kicked. The "Jones effect" to date appears to be to take us from 0% promotion chances last February to 11/2 today. Some will be interested Mundell if you can extend that calculation to promotion percentages (summing to 300%), not just winning the league. We might then take another look once the window has closed and we've played 10 games. Ideally our chances improve over time. Amazing how some look for absolute certainty when the best we can do today is estimate our chances. Let's hope CAFC and Jones are successful in identifying targets AND landing them. Fortunately only a few of our rivals will be able to compete / outbid us for talent as long as we are determined. Whether Jones and the rest can deliver competitive winning football remains to be seen, but I'm inclined to back a top six finish once we've landed a few players. Implied probability of a top six finish, using SkyBet odds and normalised to remove bookies' margin. | Club | Implied probability of a top six finish 2024-25 season, percentage |
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| | Birmingham | 59 | | Huddersfield | 44 | | Wrexham | 40 | | Peterboro | 37 | | Rotherham | 33 | | Barnsley | 33 | | Reading | 29 | | Charlton A | 28 | | Lincoln City | 28 | | Blackpool | 28 | | Wigan A | 26 | | Stockport C | 26 | | Wycombe | 19 | | Stevenage | 18 | | Mansfield T | 17 | | Bristol R | 15 | | L Orient | 15 | | Exeter C | 12 | | N'hampton | 10 | | Shrewsbury | 10 | | Burton A | 10 | | Cambridge | 10 | | L1 PO loser | 43 | | L2 PO winner | 10 |
These are, of course, "made up numbers", derived from whatever metrics bookmakers use to set odds. They are internally consistent though and, in my view, they illustrate the impact of uncertainty in a way that's quite hard to grasp intuitively. For example, Birmingham City might be strong favourites to win League One outright, and hence might be "expected" to at least make the playoffs, yet the odds imply that they'd "only" finish in the top six, six seasons in every ten. As in my post above, perhaps the overarching conclusion from this table is that League One, at least at this stage, appears to be very open and, in part, this is because the bookmakers understand and allow for the fact that outcomes are more random around a central expectation than we fans intuitively suppose. The openness of the League plays in our favour in some ways because, Birmingham apart, everyone has less than a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs so that there is nobody in particular to fear. The flip side of that openness though is that there are many teams that could, potentially, finish above us and, as result, the bookies conclude that we'd make the top six less than three seasons in ten. Even if we strengthen significantly (relative to what's already implied in these odds) our preseason chances of making the top six are unlikely to be as high as five seasons in ten. This is what Gavin Carter meant when he said that promotion might take 3-5 years, not that there was no ambition to win promotion as quickly as possible. He was simply being realistic about the nature of the challenge. Uncertainty in football, and the potential disappointment that can go with it, is part and parcel of the game. Its also what makes it the most popular spectator sport in the world. |
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Post by redownunder on May 15, 2024 20:34:18 GMT
As a realist my pick would be Birmingham and Huddersfield as autos, with Rotherham, Reading or Barnsley getting the play off slot. We would need a significant squad improvement to challenge and I can't see that happening.
Top half finish next season but there are at least 7 teams that are (at the time of writing) better than us.
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