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Post by aaronaldo on Mar 16, 2024 9:14:48 GMT
Most of this article is about promotion but it shows the full leagues potentially finishes (using the Opta supercomputer). Really interesting to see the changes in our fortunes from the older league predictions further down the article from February. What a difference a few weeks has made! looks like we have less than 1% chance of relegation at the moment. I’d be happy to secure safety asap though! theanalyst.com/eu/2024/03/who-will-win-promotion-from-league-one/ |
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Post by Occam’s Razor on Mar 17, 2024 8:51:46 GMT
As a barometer of how badly it has gone for CAFC this season, Lincoln City are now within touching distance of the play offs.
A club operating on 35% of our budget, yet a ridiculous 16 points ahead of us with 7 games to go.
Lincoln’s goal difference stands at + 23, ours is currently minus 1.
You can crunch all the stats you want, but when you benchmark levels of performance as stark at this ..and over 39 games, the only rational conclusion is that senior staff at Charlton have done their jobs very badly this season.
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Post by seriouslyred on Mar 17, 2024 12:02:00 GMT
Most of this article is about promotion but it shows the full leagues potentially finishes (using the Opta supercomputer). Really interesting to see the changes in our fortunes from the older league predictions further down the article from February. What a difference a few weeks has made! looks like we have less than 1% chance of relegation at the moment. I’d be happy to secure safety asap though! theanalyst.com/eu/2024/03/who-will-win-promotion-from-league-one/After losing to Reading back in February we had a 40% chance of relegation according to their model in the article. That has reduced every week as we've gone on this unbeaten run and we should reach 50 points soon enough. It was obviously a shock to all of us feeling that real threat, but fortunately new management with the very same squad is showing us a more tenacious version of CAFC. At the same time many fans have identified the current limitations. As the owners and SMT watch the same games as us, let's hope they address the weaknesses over the summer window. Let's see what the model predicts after ten games at the end of September 😀 |
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Post by watameires on Mar 17, 2024 14:19:58 GMT
As a barometer of how badly it has gone for CAFC this season, Lincoln City are now within touching distance of the play offs. A club operating on 35% of our budget, yet a ridiculous 16 points ahead of us with 7 games to go. Lincoln’s goal difference stands at + 23, ours is currently minus 1. You can crunch all the stats you want, but when you benchmark levels of performance as stark at this ..and over 39 games, the only rational conclusion is that senior staff at Charlton have done their jobs very badly this season. Charlton has failed this year as a collective |
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Post by Mundell on Mar 17, 2024 14:46:10 GMT
Most of this article is about promotion but it shows the full leagues potentially finishes (using the Opta supercomputer). Really interesting to see the changes in our fortunes from the older league predictions further down the article from February. What a difference a few weeks has made! looks like we have less than 1% chance of relegation at the moment. I’d be happy to secure safety asap though! theanalyst.com/eu/2024/03/who-will-win-promotion-from-league-one/After losing to Reading back in February we had a 40% chance of relegation avoiding to their model in the article. That has reduced every week as we've gone on this unbeaten run and we should reach 50 points soon enough. It was obviously a shock to all of us feeling that real threat, but fortunately new management with the very same squad is showing us a more tenacious version of CAFC. At the same time many fans have identified the current limitations. As the owners and SMT watch the same games as us, let's hope they address the weaknesses over the summer window. Let's see what the model predicts after ten games at the end of September 😀 We’ve had this conversation before seriouslyred and you must know that it’s fundamentally misleading to say “new management with the very same squad” has achieved much better results. Even if some of the players playing now were signed before Appleton was fired they certainly hadn’t all “bedded in” and Thierry Small, for example, who has been one of the players to make a very big difference since he signed, didn’t make his debut until Jones’s third game in charge and five games after Appleton was sacked. This is important for two reasons. First, while recognising that Jones has made a very significant difference since being appointed, it is not possible to understand what’s really going on, or to assess why, without an objective assessment of the facts. Second, Opta’s analysis is interesting, and stochastic simulations of this type are probably the only objective way to assess the probability of final league table position, but their method is dependent on a measure of “relative strength” for each club in the league. Those measures of relative strength will reflect historic performance (results, Xg etc.), but don’t take into account any likely changes in relative strength which reflect changes in the squad, injuries etc., or changes in head coach for that matter. This might mean, for example, that post the Reading game our (historic) measure of relative strength underestimated our likely future (current) relative strength so that, in turn, our chances of relegation were never as high as 40%. What we can say with complete confidence is that our chances of being relegated have reduced very significantly, but we can’t say with anything like the same degree of certainty what they were immediately post Reading or what they are now. |
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Post by zenga on Mar 17, 2024 23:23:59 GMT
... the only rational conclusion is that senior staff at Charlton have done their jobs very badly this season. ... and most likely learned from made mistakes cq. adjusted things. |
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Post by redplanet on Mar 18, 2024 0:15:21 GMT
As a barometer of how badly it has gone for CAFC this season, Lincoln City are now within touching distance of the play offs. A club operating on 35% of our budget, yet a ridiculous 16 points ahead of us with 7 games to go. Lincoln’s goal difference stands at + 23, ours is currently minus 1. You can crunch all the stats you want, but when you benchmark levels of performance as stark at this ..and over 39 games, the only rational conclusion is that senior staff at Charlton have done their jobs very badly this season. Gosh! I had no idea you felt like that.  |
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Post by seriouslyred on Mar 18, 2024 12:23:01 GMT
... the only rational conclusion is that senior staff at Charlton have done their jobs very badly this season. ... and most likely learned from made mistakes cq. adjusted things. What doesn't kill us makes us stronger! They and the owners have the lived experience of this season. As posted before, they've demonstrated the capability of signing several "elite" players just two months ago. And recruiting a manager who absolutely knows how to deliver at this level. We've transitioned to a 3-5-2 virtually overnight and are about to release 10 weaker players from the first team squad who are loans or out of contract. All this in just eight months of ownership! |
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Post by canterburyaddick on Mar 18, 2024 12:25:39 GMT
Alfie May the other day said that a lot of the blame has to be with the players. Much as I didn't rate MA, I think there is a lot of truth in that. They are pros and know their jobs, many players in relegated threatened teams hide behind managers, owners etc. They need to take their share of blame.
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Post by kings hill addick on Mar 18, 2024 13:15:56 GMT
Alfie May the other day said that a lot of the blame has to be with the players. Much as I didn't rate MA, I think there is a lot of truth in that. They are pros and know their jobs, many players in relegated threatened teams hide behind managers, owners etc. They need to take their share of blame. I think that they, generally, hide in games too. They don't want to have the ball, for example, as they can't lose it if they don't have it. I, completely, understand this mentality. I often put off tough tasks because I can, effectively avoid ,making a mess if I procrastinate. |
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Post by Occam’s Razor on Mar 18, 2024 15:15:01 GMT
Alfie May the other day said that a lot of the blame has to be with the players. Much as I didn't rate MA, I think there is a lot of truth in that. They are pros and know their jobs, many players in relegated threatened teams hide behind managers, owners etc. They need to take their share of blame. Interesting comment , did he elaborate ? |
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Post by seriouslyred on Mar 18, 2024 15:20:25 GMT
Alfie May the other day said that a lot of the blame has to be with the players. Much as I didn't rate MA, I think there is a lot of truth in that. They are pros and know their jobs, many players in relegated threatened teams hide behind managers, owners etc. They need to take their share of blame. I think that they, generally, hide in games too. They don't want to have the ball, for example, as they can't lose it if they don't have it. I, completely, understand this mentality. I often put off tough tasks because I can, effectively avoid ,making a mess if I procrastinate. Chicken and egg situation! Six years ago Bowyer took over from Robinson and injected some steel and commitment such that we delivered play-off form, followed by a few key players recruited over the summer. So the players have nowhere to hide. And the same applies to the SMT and football management as our club strives to return to the top six for next season. In the main Appleton had a similar squad to Holden but there were significan changes as loans arrived and certain players came back from injury. But our xG and XGA went over a cliff in December and didn't improve until Jones took over, even with the arrival of Coventry, REG, Gillesphey and Bakinson. Mundell has pointed out that Jones has a significantly different squad to that which Appleton enjoyed. But we're all old enough to remember those final games - Appleton appeared to have lost the plot. And new arrivals made little difference to our ability to win a game. The bookies and models were moving up our chances of relegation and Appleton had lost the crowd. Was it the players not trying or the manager out of time? One thing is certain: the owners, SMT and football management will need to be very precise about lessons learnt. Player motivation and fitness is key. But there's also coaching, tactics and recruitment. Our club needs to improve on all fronts over the next six months. |
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