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Post by reamsofverse on Feb 28, 2024 14:58:19 GMT
I have been looking at the fixtures and I think we need around 52 points for safety. What does everyone else think?
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Post by se7sm on Feb 28, 2024 15:09:45 GMT
Normally you would say 50 points is plenty. Looking at the table does seem like you might need a bit more.
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Post by garrynelson on Feb 28, 2024 15:13:24 GMT
I would say more (maybe 55+), but I am quite “risk-averse”
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Post by keepthefaith on Feb 28, 2024 15:44:35 GMT
I have been looking at the fixtures and I think we need around 52 points for safety. What does everyone else think? Agree 52 feels about right this season, though I've not had a look at fixtures yet and how frequently the teams around and below us are playing eachother - which could have a big bearing |
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Post by kings hill addick on Feb 28, 2024 17:10:10 GMT
I think 48 or 49 will be safe.
None of the bottom three have averaged more than one point per game all season, and they are hardly setting the world alight now, either.
With our superior goal difference we have another point advantage over the bottom four.
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Post by Occam’s Razor on Feb 28, 2024 17:27:21 GMT
I’d say 50 keeps us up.
Port Vale are the ones to watch - they need 6 wins from their remaining 13 games to make life uncomfortable for the rest, which is doable.
Personally I don’t think Darren Moore is a particularly good manage, although he always seems to excite a certain section of our fanbase.
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Post by manikin on Feb 28, 2024 17:38:16 GMT
I reckon 52 points makes us 100% safe and a few more points we could target 14th spot.
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Post by aaronaldo on Feb 28, 2024 19:24:29 GMT
50 would be enough to me
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Post by seriouslyred on Feb 28, 2024 20:53:36 GMT
I really wouldn't worry about it!
We've just taken five points (undefeated) against the top three and we're not yet fitting on all cylinders. Jones appears to have done the initial heavy lifting to shift the mentality and approach / find the right mix.
We're playing like a mid-table side looking up and the bookies have us as 9th favourites for the drop... so finishing 16th!
Obviously might be completely wrong but can see us catching / overtaking the cluster of clubs on 38 just above.
Put another way, how many more teams will beat us this season?! And once more and more see things this way the next question is: how many out of contract players do we renew / how many is Jones actually using?
Then the summer window is upon us and we might consider where we might be in just six months time!
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Post by Occam’s Razor on Feb 29, 2024 8:10:26 GMT
I really wouldn't worry about it! We've just taken five points (undefeated) against the top three and we're not yet fitting on all cylinders. Jones appears to have done the initial heavy lifting to shift the mentality and approach / find the right mix. We're playing like a mid-table side looking up and the bookies have us as 9th favourites for the drop... so finishing 16th! Obviously might be completely wrong but can see us catching / overtaking the cluster of clubs on 38 just above. Put another way, how many more teams will beat us this season?! And once more and more see things this way the next question is: how many out of contract players do we renew / how many is Jones actually using? Then the summer window is upon us and we might consider where we might be in just six months time! We are one of 6-7 teams with a realistic chance of being relegated. The reason we are amongst these teams is that we are a poor / inconsistent side. The win at Derby will count for nothing if we belly flop at Northampton on Saturday, a game I am looking forward to attending to see whether we can sustain the momentum of our decent 45 mins on Tuesday night. I can’t see the point of your comment “let’s consider where we might be in six months time” …it’s always a random and mythical date sometime in the future , which avoids rational analysis and apportioning blame for where the club sits today. |
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Post by seriouslyred on Feb 29, 2024 9:00:16 GMT
I really wouldn't worry about it! We've just taken five points (undefeated) against the top three and we're not yet fitting on all cylinders. Jones appears to have done the initial heavy lifting to shift the mentality and approach / find the right mix. We're playing like a mid-table side looking up and the bookies have us as 9th favourites for the drop... so finishing 16th! Obviously might be completely wrong but can see us catching / overtaking the cluster of clubs on 38 just above. Put another way, how many more teams will beat us this season?! And once more and more see things this way the next question is: how many out of contract players do we renew / how many is Jones actually using? Then the summer window is upon us and we might consider where we might be in just six months time! We are one of 6-7 teams with a realistic chance of being relegated. The reason we are amongst these teams is that we are a poor / inconsistent side. The win at Derby will count for nothing if we belly flop at Northampton on Saturday, a game I am looking forward to attending to see whether we can sustain the momentum of our decent 45 mins on Tuesday night. I can’t see the point of your comment “let’s consider where we might be in six months time” …it’s always a random and mythical date sometime in the future , which avoids rational analysis and apportioning blame for where the club sits today. First off I trust you and the rest of the away fan contingent (plus those watching on a stream) enjoy the game. We were poor against our relegation rivals Reading and lost. Since then we've gone four games undefeated and many would agree that the second half performance vs Derby shouldn't be taken in isolation. Rather it's the outcome of progress across the entire pitch as players are coached, and find their way under our new manager. As a result, I was and am confident that we will win games in March, and that we will put daylight between us and the bottom four soon enough. Said the same ten years back with certain wags on CL calling me a mindless optimist 😀 Conversely, we might go on another winless run, but that looks unlikely when one considers all of the performances under Jones. Once the relegation threat diminishes we move on to two major events: the retained list where anything up to 12 players might leave the club. And then the actual summer window. Just one year after the takeover our prospects should look unrecognisable compared to August 2023. The dates I pick are NEVER random or mythical - in this case I'm asking fellow fans to visualise how we might finish the season, and how we might then play in six months time with further quality additions. |
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Post by zenga on Feb 29, 2024 12:19:25 GMT
I actually looked at the last 10 full seasons:
Random fact, Charlton has currently exactly the same amount of points (37) from the same amount of games (35) that was required to stay up when the covid season was cut short.
Last 11 seasons (10 since I didn't include covid season)
2022/23: safe: 46 points / relegated: 45 points
2021/22: safe: 40 points / relegated: 40 points
2020/21: safe: 48 points / relegated: 47 points
2019/20: safe: 37 points / relegated: 35 points (35 games played, covid)
2018/19: safe: 50 points / relegated: 50 points
2017/18: safe: 51 points / relegated: 50 points
2016/17: safe: 50 points / relegated: 49 points
2015/16: safe: 50 points / relegated: 46 points
2014/15: safe: 52 points / relegated: 50 points
2013/14: safe: 50 points / relegated: 47 points
2012/13: safe: 51 points / relegated: 48 points
Average points of the highest relegated team over 10 years 47.3 points (covid season not included).
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Post by aaronaldo on Feb 29, 2024 14:36:03 GMT
What happened in 21/22?! 40 points was enough?! Mad...
50 seems like we need to get to 50 points asap.
17/18 looks to be the wrong way round? Assume 51 was safe.
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Post by reamsofverse on Feb 29, 2024 15:16:54 GMT
I actually looked at the last 10 full seasons: Random fact, Charlton has currently exactly the same amount of points (37) from the same amount of games (35) that was required to stay up when the covid season was cut short. Last 11 seasons (10 since I didn't include covid season) 2022/23: safe: 46 points / relegated: 45 points 2021/22: safe: 40 points / relegated: 40 points 2020/21: safe: 48 points / relegated: 47 points 2019/20: safe: 37 points / relegated: 35 points (35 games played, covid) 2018/19: safe: 50 points / relegated: 50 points 2017/18: safe: 50 points / relegated: 51 points 2016/17: safe: 50 points / relegated: 49 points 2015/16: safe: 50 points / relegated: 46 points 2014/15: safe: 52 points / relegated: 50 points 2013/14: safe: 50 points / relegated: 47 points 2012/13: safe: 51 points / relegated: 48 points Average points of the highest relegated team over 10 years 47.3 points (covid season not included). Fra more teams involved in the fight to stay up this season than most of the one's you have listed zenga hence the need for a healthy 52 point target. |
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Post by jonkool on Feb 29, 2024 15:58:21 GMT
I actually looked at the last 10 full seasons: Random fact, Charlton has currently exactly the same amount of points (37) from the same amount of games (35) that was required to stay up when the covid season was cut short. Last 11 seasons (10 since I didn't include covid season) 2022/23: safe: 46 points / relegated: 45 points 2021/22: safe: 40 points / relegated: 40 points 2020/21: safe: 48 points / relegated: 47 points 2019/20: safe: 37 points / relegated: 35 points (35 games played, covid) 2018/19: safe: 50 points / relegated: 50 points 2017/18: safe: 50 points / relegated: 51 points 2016/17: safe: 50 points / relegated: 49 points 2015/16: safe: 50 points / relegated: 46 points 2014/15: safe: 52 points / relegated: 50 points 2013/14: safe: 50 points / relegated: 47 points 2012/13: safe: 51 points / relegated: 48 points Average points of the highest relegated team over 10 years 47.3 points (covid season not included). Good data Zenga and the reduction in points required over the past 3 seasons is interesting and tells me that smaller clubs often recently promoted from Div 2 with low average attendances are really struggling financially following Covid lock down. In this basis I suspect that the club in 20th position at season end will have less than 50 points … time of course will tell 👍 |
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Post by aaronaldo on Feb 29, 2024 17:34:59 GMT
I actually looked at the last 10 full seasons: Random fact, Charlton has currently exactly the same amount of points (37) from the same amount of games (35) that was required to stay up when the covid season was cut short. Last 11 seasons (10 since I didn't include covid season) 2022/23: safe: 46 points / relegated: 45 points 2021/22: safe: 40 points / relegated: 40 points 2020/21: safe: 48 points / relegated: 47 points 2019/20: safe: 37 points / relegated: 35 points (35 games played, covid) 2018/19: safe: 50 points / relegated: 50 points 2017/18: safe: 50 points / relegated: 51 points 2016/17: safe: 50 points / relegated: 49 points 2015/16: safe: 50 points / relegated: 46 points 2014/15: safe: 52 points / relegated: 50 points 2013/14: safe: 50 points / relegated: 47 points 2012/13: safe: 51 points / relegated: 48 points Average points of the highest relegated team over 10 years 47.3 points (covid season not included). Fra more teams involved in the fight to stay up this season than most of the one's you have listed zenga hence the need for a healthy 52 point target. Doesn't the fact that there are more teams in and around relegation mean the total amount required would likely be less? As there's less teams adrift and many teams in the battle taking points off each other. |
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Post by seriouslyred on Feb 29, 2024 17:54:03 GMT
Fra more teams involved in the fight to stay up this season than most of the one's you have listed zenga hence the need for a healthy 52 point target. Doesn't the fact that there are more teams in and around relegation mean the total amount required would likely be less? As there's less teams adrift and many teams in the battle taking points off each other. All depends upon what Port Vale and Cheltenham do with their games in hand, and whether Reading sustain any more penalties. |
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Post by Mundell on Feb 29, 2024 19:22:20 GMT
Interesting data zenga Even in your relatively small sample of ten seasons it’s clear that there is a fairly wide range of points needed for survival. At the lower end of that range we’d probably all agree that survival is highly likely, while at the upper end (or even above it) getting the points needed might be more challenging. An interesting question is how many points do teams in the bottom 8-10 typically have at this stage of the season and how does that translate into the points eventually needed to stay out of the bottom four? That’s probably quite a fiddly thing to check out but a short cut is to look at how each club currently ranks relative to a one point per game benchmark. A team currently at +4 versus that benchmark “only” needs to win a point per game to finish on 50 points etc. At this stage of the season, the clubs battling against relegation would all be very disappointed if they can’t accumulate at least one point per game. It’s also worth noting here, that if there is a winner in each of the “six pointers” then on average each team is accumulating at 1.5 points per game. If we’re looking at the four teams immediately above us, Shrewsbury, Burton, Cambridge and Exeter, they currently stand at +3, +4, +4 and +5, and “on target” for 48, 50, 50 and 51 points, or more, respectively. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see each of these teams reach the 50 points mark or better. On current PPG Shrewsbury are already on target for 49.9 points. Moreover, during the run in we might expect the teams fighting to avoid relegation to improve on their PPG. It would be interesting to test that. That leaves us with Reading, Cheltenham and Port Vale who stand at +1, +0 and -1, and hence 47, 46 and 45 points respectively. Reading’s metric is, arguably, misleading given their points deduction. Applying their current PPG (ex their points deduction) to their remaining fixtures would take them to 49.2 points, within easy striking distance of the 50 points mark and, of course, their goal difference, like ours, is also much better than other teams in the drop zone. Much might depend, therefore, on whether Cheltenham (PPG target 46 points) or Port Vale (PPG target 44.6 points) can finish the season strongly. Anything can happen. That’s the beauty of football. From Cheltenham’s perspective they’ve got two winnable home games coming up (against Burton on Saturday and then us on Tuesday). If they won both they’d also be on +4 and on target for 50 points or 51.2 points based on their then PPG. Anything can happen. For all we know, Cheltenham might blow up, for example, so that the survival mark turns out to be less than your 47.3 points average, but my sense, based on the above, is that it’s likely that an above average number of points might be needed this season. I’m with Paul here. If Charlton was offered 50 points to end the season now, I absolutely wouldn’t take it. First, because I think we’re more than capable of hitting that mark (and that’s what matters most ), but second because there’s at least a chance 50 points won’t be enough. |
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Post by zenga on Mar 1, 2024 0:51:42 GMT
Interesting data zenga Even in your relatively small sample of ten seasons it’s clear that there is a fairly wide range of points needed for survival. At the lower end of that range we’d probably all agree that survival is highly likely, while at the upper end (or even above it) getting the points needed might be more challenging. An interesting question is how many points do teams in the bottom 8-10 typically have at this stage of the season and how does that translate into the points eventually needed to stay out of the bottom four? 1) Yes it's a small sample size but football has changed quite a bit compared to a decade ago, so how relevant is that? I don't know myself, I just wanted some data to see a trend, and that trend is that 50 points would have been enough to stay up during the last 10 seasons (3 times it would have needed to be with goal difference, or whatever they use). 2) So I went ahead and made it a bit more visual: Points per position from the past 10 complete seasons (left covid season out for obvious reasons).  In a graph with top 7 (deliberately included the one who missed playoffs) and bottom 8  . Same graph but just bottom 8.  Conclusion: better get to those 50 points asap and forget about this season, anything else is pure speculation (based off these graphs). And be happy that Charlton seems to gain form. Worst thing that could happen is to overanalyze it, thinking you are safe, and that on the last matchday some end of season miracle happens like they so often do. There are models out there that let you run simulations, but I can not be arsed with that. My take on it is pretty simple: worst case scenario the clubs goes down for 1 or 2 seasons and will bounce back. But then again, easy for me to say because I'm not as emotionally involved like most of you. |
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Post by Mundell on Mar 1, 2024 10:23:53 GMT
Many thanks for that zenga |
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