Where might we be after 23 games?

[seriouslyred]

We've all watched the takeover develop, players leave and join, and now our first game vs Orient.

Some might predict where we might finish the season but first we need to make the journey to the January window. And that will bring the third opportunity for Scott, Holden and the rest to adjust our squad.

It's still very early to make sensible predictions given that we've only seen one game, so let's keep this poll open all month and see how things develop.

[reamsofverse]

Ask teh question again at the end of August.

[stu2020]

Depends if we have some more coming in... I assume we have a striker coming... business should be done before the season starts ...

[seriouslyred]

Aug 6, 2023 20:45:53 GMT reamsofverse said:

Ask teh question again at the end of August.

Sure... or leave this poll open so that members can change their votes if they wish?

We normally get 30-50 votes - not statistically valid for the whole fanbase, but usually in line with bigger polls elsewhere.

[bexleyboy]

Don’t matter after 23 as long as come January we are in the mix to enable us to invest again to push on after the window .

[kings hill addick]

Aug 8, 2023 8:31:11 GMT bexleyboy said:

Don’t matter after 23 as long as come January we are in the mix to enable us to invest again to push on after the window .

That is, exactly, why it does matter!

If we are in the top six in January the owners might invest in shorter term players to get us into the top two, or secure a top six, where as if we are six or eight points off the top six they might be looking to sign players that so that they can settle and will give us more in 2024/25.

[seriouslyred]

Bumping this so that people can add or change their votes this week

[kings hill addick]

My prediction was 37 points, which is 1.61 points per game where as we averaged 1.35 last season.

I can't believe that we will achieve a lower average than last season but if we don't recruit players soon (or players that are 90% plus match fit) then by the time the 'full squad' is up to speed we might be too far away to hit 37 points by the time we've played half our games.

Let's be honest, the new owners have failed to outperform previous regimes this summer. We have, still, started the season with nowhere near enough quality in the first eleven, never mind the squad, and with gaping holes in certain areas.

I know Sandgaard dragged his feet but, on the basis that he achieved a much better outcome by doing so, the new owners have to hold their hands up as they could have just paid the asking price at the start. Also they, now, have form for agreeing to pay the asking price 'in the end' which, virtually, guarantees that any club with a player we want will hang on until 31 August expecting to get what they want.

[earlpurple]

I worry about Charlie Methven's statement on not signing senior players in positions where there are academy players coming through because that won't give the academy players a chance to flourish.

Methven should not be involved in who we sign for what position, and that shoud be up to Andy Scott and Dean Holden, who need to sign senior players in the positions where we badly need to strengthen with the strategy of getting us promoted, if player in those positions become available that are better than what we already have, and even loan players.

It is also known that well experienced players will help coach the youngsters to play those roles better, i.e. the academy players will learn from them.

[reamsofverse]

Aug 14, 2023 11:28:15 GMT earlpurple said:

I worry about Charlie Methven's statement on not signing senior players in positions where there are academy players coming through because that won't give the academy players a chance to flourish.

Methven should not be involved in who we sign for what position, and that shoud be up to Andy Scott and Dean Holden, who need to sign senior players in the positions where we badly need to strengthen with the strategy of getting us promoted, if player in those positions become available that are better than what we already have, and even loan players.

It is also known that well experienced players will help coach the youngsters to play those roles better, i.e. the academy players will learn from them.

Can I just say that this was not something that was said to me recently. It was during the summer before they had taken over. I didn't agree with it personally but he didn't say that players won't be signed in those positions.

He is just a believer in youth being given a chance which I understand but that doesn't mean to say he'll be overuling Holden or Andy Scott should they have different ideas.

[Mundell]

Aug 14, 2023 10:00:45 GMT kings hill addick said:

My prediction was 37 points, which is 1.61 points per game where as we averaged 1.35 last season.

I can't believe that we will achieve a lower average than last season but if we don't recruit players soon (or players that are 90% plus match fit) then by the time the 'full squad' is up to speed we might be too far away to hit 37 points by the time we've played half our games.

Let's be honest, the new owners have failed to outperform previous regimes this summer. We have, still, started the season with nowhere near enough quality in the first eleven, never mind the squad, and with gaping holes in certain areas.

I know Sandgaard dragged his feet but, on the basis that he achieved a much better outcome by doing so, the new owners have to hold their hands up as they could have just paid the asking price at the start. Also they, now, have form for agreeing to pay the asking price 'in the end' which, virtually, guarantees that any club with a player we want will hang on until 31 August expecting to get what they want.

The outstanding football finance analyst Swiss Ramble has just written a piece on Ipswich Town, covering the 2021-22 season and including comparative data with other League One clubs. The data for Charlton confirms what I and others have been saying. On every metric that matters we’ve been top six or often better; on wages, wages to turnover, transfer spend, operating losses etc. 

We are a big club by League One standards, we’ve benefited from significant owner funding and we’ve consistently spent enough money (on both wages and transfer fees) to produce a playing squad more than capable of finishing in the top six. Money has not been the problem, no matter how often some claim that it has been. 

The new management team do not need to spend more money than Sandgaard to win promotion. They need to spend money more effectively than Sandgaard and they need to get more out of the players available, both individually and collectively. 

This is down to Andy Scott, Dean Holden and, eventually, to the soon to be appointed Director of Performance. The relationships between these three individuals will be critical to their success. As Head Coach Dean Holden will be judged on how well he performs with the players he has available to him, not based on how he might have done if only the investors had shelled out for X or Y, or had bought the striker fans believe we need, and he’ll be the first to go if results are disappointing. 

My take is that Holden is already under pressure. Based on our Xg, for and against, our performances last season did not improve after he replaced Ben Garner and while we appear well organised out of possession, and press well, we lack any fluency in possession and are too dependent on individualism to create anything, be it Rak Saki last season or Blackett Taylor this. That’s down to the Head Coach, surely? 

For me the questions are, 1) what is Dean Holden trying to do, 2) what sort of players does he need to do it and 3) if he had them would he deliver more than the sum of the parts? My biggest concern is that the answers to those questions are not at all obvious. 

PS For what little it’s worth, my own view is that the most likely outcome of the three above is thirty seven points. That would probably be about in line with our wage bill, or perhaps a little worse than. The problem, as illustrated by the responses, is that the skew from that central outcome is downwards. It needs to be upwards. 

[Mundell]

Aug 14, 2023 11:28:15 GMT earlpurple said:

I worry about Charlie Methven's statement on not signing senior players in positions where there are academy players coming through because that won't give the academy players a chance to flourish.

Methven should not be involved in who we sign for what position, and that shoud be up to Andy Scott and Dean Holden, who need to sign senior players in the positions where we badly need to strengthen with the strategy of getting us promoted, if player in those positions become available that are better than what we already have, and even loan players.

It is also known that well experienced players will help coach the youngsters to play those roles better, i.e. the academy players will learn from them.

I think there’s a non sequitur in your comment above. It is entirely reasonable for the owner, investors or the Board to decide strategically on the type of players they want the club to sign and on how they want the playing squad to develop. Based on their conclusions they might then give direction to the Technical Director. However, this does not mean they will be involved in decisions about individual players. Boards set strategy and then delegate execution while holding management to account. That process ought to be one of the strengths of the new ownership and management structure. 

[seriouslyred]

Aug 14, 2023 13:31:39 GMT Mundell said:

Aug 14, 2023 10:00:45 GMT kings hill addick said:

My prediction was 37 points, which is 1.61 points per game where as we averaged 1.35 last season.

I can't believe that we will achieve a lower average than last season but if we don't recruit players soon (or players that are 90% plus match fit) then by the time the 'full squad' is up to speed we might be too far away to hit 37 points by the time we've played half our games.

Let's be honest, the new owners have failed to outperform previous regimes this summer. We have, still, started the season with nowhere near enough quality in the first eleven, never mind the squad, and with gaping holes in certain areas.

I know Sandgaard dragged his feet but, on the basis that he achieved a much better outcome by doing so, the new owners have to hold their hands up as they could have just paid the asking price at the start. Also they, now, have form for agreeing to pay the asking price 'in the end' which, virtually, guarantees that any club with a player we want will hang on until 31 August expecting to get what they want.

The outstanding football finance analyst Swiss Ramble has just written a piece on Ipswich Town, covering the 2021-22 season and including comparative data with other League One clubs. The data for Charlton confirms what I and others have been saying. On every metric that matters we’ve been top six or often better; on wages, wages to turnover, transfer spend, operating losses etc. 

We are a big club by League One standards, we’ve benefited from significant owner funding and we’ve consistently spent enough money (on both wages and transfer fees) to produce a playing squad more than capable of finishing in the top six. Money has not been the problem, no matter how often some claim that it has been. 

The new management team do not need to spend more money than Sandgaard to win promotion. They need to spend money more effectively than Sandgaard and they need to get more out of the players available, both individually and collectively. 

This is down to Andy Scott, Dean Holden and, eventually, to the soon to be appointed Director of Performance. The relationships between these three individuals will be critical to their success. As Head Coach Dean Holden will be judged on how well he performs with the players he has available to him, not based on how he might have done if only the investors had shelled out for X or Y, or had bought the striker fans believe we need, and he’ll be the first to go if results are disappointing. 

My take is that Holden is already under pressure. Based on our Xg, for and against, our performances last season did not improve after he replaced Ben Garner and while we appear well organised out of possession, and press well, we lack any fluency in possession and are too dependent on individualism to create anything, be it Rak Saki last season or Blackett Taylor this. That’s down to the Head Coach, surely? 

For me the questions are, 1) what is Dean Holden trying to do, 2) what sort of players does he need to do it and 3) if he had them would he deliver more than the sum of the parts? My biggest concern is that the answers to those questions are not at all obvious. 

PS For what little it’s worth, my own view is that the most likely outcome of the three above is thirty seven points. That would probably be about in line with our wage bill, or perhaps a little worse than. The problem, as illustrated by the responses, is that the skew from that central outcome is downwards. It needs to be upwards. 

We are certainly a top six club in League One based upon several metrics: gates, revenue, wage bill, player sales revenue. And yet our income AND wage bill are both £5M behind Ipswich for the season before last. We are all aware of the quality of players acquired by Ipswich over since their takeover and their owners appear to have a similar approach to that of ours - a long term punt at the EPL. 

Incidentally I watched the "fall and rise of Luton Town" which has been even more spectacular based upon youth player development and medium term strategic planning. Even if one of the main protagonists Nathan Jones jumped ship to the EPL not once but twice on their journey!

I tend to agree that it's now all about what Scott and Holden can do with the current squad plus final additions via EPL loans. It's also about what Methven, Sutherland and others can do to close that £5M revenue gap on Ipswich. And finally how long will Holden be given to enhance individual and team performances (especially xG). Failure to demonstrate that we are a top six contender isn't going to end well! But it's a tad premature to judge Holden given that we are yet to replace Rak-Sakyi and key stikers are out injured.

The investors have committed to two years of funding CAFC losses and will expect to see progress towards becoming a very competitive side. Our club needs to be in a very good place next summer in terms of revenues given that the last of the Sandgaard / Gallen signings will be leaving the building. As per the CASTrust meeting with Rodwell, the whole of the SMT is on the hook for meeting unpublished targets.

[aaronaldo]

We need another category

[se7sm]

Relegated

[manikin]

Aug 19, 2023 15:26:13 GMT aaronaldo said:

We need another category

Relegation battle!

[seriouslyred]

Aug 19, 2023 15:26:13 GMT aaronaldo said:

We need another category

Yeah not looking good - far worse than expected after games against bog standard League One sides.

The votes are certainly shifting away from top six and onto mid-table.

As reamsofverse suggested, perhaps run another poll after 10 games once the table settle AND our injured players back?

[earlpurple]

I don't think we can attract the better players anymore. When Sandgaard arrived, within a short time we had brought in some players and won 6 in a row.

Maybe there was a difference of having Lee Bowyer who, whether you think he was a good coach or not, had got us promoted 2 years earlier and was a well known name, plus the fact we'd only just been relegated labelled us a club likely to return.

[aaronaldo]

Aug 20, 2023 16:38:49 GMT earlpurple said:

I don't think we can attract the better players anymore. When Sandgaard arrived, within a short time we had brought in some players and won 6 in a row.

Maybe there was a difference of having Lee Bowyer who, whether you think he was a good coach or not, had got us promoted 2 years earlier and was a well known name, plus the fact we'd only just been relegated labelled us a club likely to return.

Agree mate. I don’t think Holden has the pull of Bowyer and our start has been horrific.

3 weeks ago we were buzzing with the signings but we all knew we needed to start well. Couldn’t have gone much worse. Not that you’d know from Holdens press conferences though. You’d think we were top 2!

[surridgecobbler5]

The perception was Holden Did do better than Garner. But perhaps the change to a more direct style gave that.

Looking at his management ( Bristol City) and coaching track record, there is nothing to suggest he is a top class coach in L1
and Senda has limited Ist team experience at Orient. Hayes was certainly impressive in his tactical knowledge , Brighton was a good example and may be the best technical and tactical option.
But overall in experience we are light !

[seriouslyred]

Aug 20, 2023 16:38:49 GMT earlpurple said:

I don't think we can attract the better players anymore. When Sandgaard arrived, within a short time we had brought in some players and won 6 in a row.

Maybe there was a difference of having Lee Bowyer who, whether you think he was a good coach or not, had got us promoted 2 years earlier and was a well known name, plus the fact we'd only just been relegated labelled us a club likely to return.

There's certainly the challenge of returning to the top six. For that's the only way we have any chance of promotion.

Every summer squad additions come from four sources. Academy graduates, EPL loans, free agents and transfers. Will the calibre change over time or where we finish?

Ideally a few windows with an established Technical Director will ensure improvement back to where we once were.

[iomvaliants]

Can we add an option of bottom 6 now please?

[norfolkrobin]

Aug 26, 2023 16:46:00 GMT iomvaliants said:

Can we add an option of bottom 6 now please?

Might aswell call the category cut adrift IF nothing changes.

[pardew123]

5 on the trot if we were Premiership I’d understand it’s league 1😭🤣

[seriouslyred]

Aug 26, 2023 16:46:00 GMT iomvaliants said:

Can we add an option of bottom 6 now please?

I can't change the poll.

So will lock this one and start a new one after the window has closed. Perhaps AFTER the Fleetwood game next Saturday?

[iomvaliants]

Aug 26, 2023 16:50:27 GMT seriouslyred said:

Aug 26, 2023 16:46:00 GMT iomvaliants said:

Can we add an option of bottom 6 now please?

I can't change the poll.

So will lock this one and start a new one after the window has closed. Perhaps AFTER the Fleetwood game next Saturday?

sounds like a plan