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Post by 1978sussex on Feb 11, 2020 9:05:52 GMT
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Post by reamsofverse on Feb 11, 2020 9:42:30 GMT
And we are a long way short.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2020 10:28:56 GMT
We are currently 1 point ahead of the average point scoring rate required to finish the season on 48 points. (The average after 31 games is 32 points, we have 33). But our form over the past 3 months suggests we will not reach 48.
I think I worked out the other day that if our last 3 months' form contunies, we will reach 44 perhaps. Most seasons that would mean relegation.
I believe Wigan are the big problem. They have a history of good runs during their last 8-10 games. Not every season, but often enough. I wouldn't be very surprised if they exceed 50 points by May.
If nobody else suffers a collapse in form, that means Charlton will have to do better than Wigan. And right now I cannot see that happening.
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Post by bexleyboy on Feb 11, 2020 11:05:42 GMT
And we are a long way short. Point a game to stay up think we would have taken that at this stage start of Aug .....
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Post by wellingaddick on Feb 11, 2020 11:21:01 GMT
Thing is that Wigan, Luton and Barnsley will be looking at that total as well. Personally, I think that particular target is short of what we will need.
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Post by lukepiestalker on Feb 11, 2020 13:00:36 GMT
Still think we are gonna stay up but it will be tight.
We need to start creating and stop leaking. Some very hard work needs to be done in both areas.
Our forwards need service and we do not look we can create for them, which is very worrying indeed. Window has not been amazing, underwhelming more like. Someone needs to come up with something as social media platitudes or blame wont bring points. Both Lee and MS are in control now. Shit or bust time.
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Post by jonkool on Feb 11, 2020 13:30:24 GMT
The answer is to go out every game with a plan to win by the players giving their very best. We will then see where that gets us when the final whistle blows at Elland Road in May.
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Post by reamsofverse on Feb 11, 2020 13:31:46 GMT
And we are a long way short. Point a game to stay up think we would have taken that at this stage start of Aug ..... So would the other sides.
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Post by earlpurple on Feb 11, 2020 15:25:50 GMT
Point a game was approximately what we achieved with Jose Riga in 2016 and it was nowhere near enough. Even if we had got that from the start of the season it would not have been enough that year. For every 4 games we were winning 1, drawing 1 and losing the other 2. These were the games we won:
Rotherham away 4-1, and at that point I was really hopeful of a revival, but then we lost at home to Bristol City the next game. Brentford away 2-1, it was losing at home 0-3 to them that was the final nail in the coffin for Guy Luzon Birmingham at home, can't remember the exactly scoreline but we completed the double over them with that win Middlesbrough home 2-0, they ended up promoted but their manager had temporarily abandoned them Leeds away 2-1. By this point we were already down, but always fun to beat Leeds.
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Post by seriouslyred on Feb 11, 2020 21:57:43 GMT
After the win tonight, we've gone from two wins in 19 to two wins in six! Said it before more than once: best judge our 2020 team based on when the squad is fully fit and we've seen both the team performances and new arrivals.
After the next two games we will all be in a better place to take a view on the run in. Not just about the win tonight but the performance and the clean sheet.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2020 21:59:09 GMT
I think after Saturday, the highest ranked side we play at home for the rest of the season is Reading.
It's very much 'in our hands'.
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Post by jeddez on Feb 11, 2020 22:19:23 GMT
I think after Saturday, the highest ranked side we play at home for the rest of the season is Reading. It's very much 'in our hands'. Always was as we weren’t in the relegation zone...
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Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2020 22:21:33 GMT
I think after Saturday, the highest ranked side we play at home for the rest of the season is Reading. It's very much 'in our hands'. Always was as we weren’t in the relegation zone... I'm aware of that. I'm just emphasizing the calibre of sides we're hosting. If it were all home games against teams higher than Reading, I might be a little less in our hands. I know what I meant anyway.
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Post by rationaladdick on Feb 12, 2020 5:55:59 GMT
He is probably right about 47. But just to be sure, lets add 42 more between now and the end of the season.
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Post by mikebassett on Feb 12, 2020 11:27:58 GMT
Think the home form will be key. Games against Blackburn, Luton, Boro, QPR, Millwall, Wigan and Reading are as good as you could wish for and if we don’t get enough points from those games, we deserve to go down.
Averaging 1.44 points per game at home gives us a projection of 10 more points gained at home, which while okay, is probably a minimum against two of the bottom three and the three sides directly above us.
We’ve achieved 0.75 points per game away, which isn’t great and if we carry on in the same vein, that’s another 5 points. Based off how we’re going, we’re looking at roughly 15 more.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2020 11:47:37 GMT
I think the amount of points to go up or stay up are going to be on the low side due to nobody being able to hold form.
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Post by reamsofverse on Feb 15, 2020 17:03:29 GMT
We'll get nowhere near 47 points under Bowyer and even if we do we'll be bottom three.
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Post by jeddez on Feb 15, 2020 17:07:40 GMT
So when we win he’s great, when we lose he’s shit...
Poor result and not at the office, Luton is a 6 pointer for us which I think we’ll win, but we must defend better than that today...
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Post by 1978sussex on Feb 15, 2020 17:13:47 GMT
3 win 2 draws from 13 games of we dont get that u deserve to go down we be fine never once have i thought we go down
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Post by pardew123 on Feb 15, 2020 17:14:56 GMT
We won’t go down but need a real revamp in june
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Post by reamsofverse on Feb 15, 2020 18:17:21 GMT
So when we win he’s great, when we lose he’s shit... Poor result and not at the office, Luton is a 6 pointer for us which I think we’ll win, but we must defend better than that today... Buck stops with the manager, I would swop him with Warnock tomorrow if staying up depended on it.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2020 18:20:33 GMT
So when we win he’s great, when we lose he’s shit... Poor result and not at the office, Luton is a 6 pointer for us which I think we’ll win, but we must defend better than that today... Buck stops with the manager, I would swop him with Warnock tomorrow if staying up depended on it. I wasn’t there today (nor at Forest) but you surely are not advocating changing manager now??? 😟
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Post by reamsofverse on Feb 15, 2020 18:34:10 GMT
Buck stops with the manager, I would swop him with Warnock tomorrow if staying up depended on it. I wasn’t there today (nor at Forest) but you surely are not advocating changing manager now??? 😟 Hand on heart no but I am really fearing for us now, I mean which one is it......LB not being able to get the best out of the players he has or the players just not being good enough? He'll stay which is what I want of course but I fear he doesn't have enough about him to keep us up. If but we do go down though he'll be the best manager in L1 next season and naturally you would want to see him to succeed with a new squad at his disposal.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2020 18:47:16 GMT
I wasn’t there today (nor at Forest) but you surely are not advocating changing manager now??? 😟 Hand on heart no but I am really fearing for us now, I mean which one is it......LB not being able to get the best out of the players he has or the players just not being good enough? He'll stay which is what I want of course but I fear he doesn't have enough about him to keep us up. If but we do go down though he'll be the best manager in L1 next season and naturally you would want to see him to succeed with a new squad at his disposal. Fair enough, I share your concerns but just have to back him and keep fingers and everything else crossed 🤞
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Post by dartford36 on Feb 15, 2020 21:54:29 GMT
I have been concerned for a while that the support team that Lee has assembled may not be good enough. JJ was and is a club favourite for all he did as a player that doesn’t make him a good coach and whilst giving him a better contract may be seen as cementing a good coaching structure at the club I’m less convinced. I reckon Lee needs a vastly more experienced coach at his side although I guess that’s not a view that will be popular with many. And for good measure I sometimes wonder what the goalkeeping coach does every day as there is still work to be done with Phillips whose distribution still lacks consistence and accuracy. Today Blackburn were much better on the ball, passed the ball with greater accuracy and on the whole were tactically more astute. That’s not just down to Mowbray. That being said the people Lee has around him are not going to change so whatever I think means nothing at all, just my feeling. Lee doesn’t always get it right, but he isn’t the only coach at the club, although I concede the buck stops with him when it goes wrong.
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Post by oisalmon74 on Feb 16, 2020 4:40:55 GMT
I have been concerned for a while that the support team that Lee has assembled may not be good enough. JJ was and is a club favourite for all he did as a player that doesn’t make him a good coach and whilst giving him a better contract may be seen as cementing a good coaching structure at the club I’m less convinced. I reckon Lee needs a vastly more experienced coach at his side although I guess that’s not a view that will be popular with many. And for good measure I sometimes wonder what the goalkeeping coach does every day as there is still work to be done with Phillips whose distribution still lacks consistence and accuracy. Today Blackburn were much better on the ball, passed the ball with greater accuracy and on the whole were tactically more astute. That’s not just down to Mowbray. That being said the people Lee has around him are not going to change so whatever I think means nothing at all, just my feeling. Lee doesn’t always get it right, but he isn’t the only coach at the club, although I concede the buck stops with him when it goes wrong. I agree with the sentiments here. Is peacock still around day to day? He’s got enough football experience but I’m not sure it’s current. Lee needs another coach or director of football, paper clips or match day experience (whatever you want to call him)he can turn to for help and advice. if the experience doesn’t need to be current, ie based on the last few years, get curbs in on a consultancy basis.
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Post by reamsofverse on Feb 16, 2020 23:37:25 GMT
I think it's worth pointing out that if we keep losing and the other sides keep winning 47 points will be nowhere near enough to keep us up.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2020 0:02:33 GMT
So when we win he’s great, when we lose he’s shit... Poor result and not at the office, Luton is a 6 pointer for us which I think we’ll win, but we must defend better than that today... sad to say jeddez, but yes, when we lose, his line ups and tactics have generally been shit, and sometimes when we've won he's also been shit and we've been lucky. I like Lee, but given a choice I'd out him now before it's too late. If we go down to Luton I wont be alone in my views
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2020 2:09:48 GMT
So when we win he’s great, when we lose he’s shit... Poor result and not at the office, Luton is a 6 pointer for us which I think we’ll win, but we must defend better than that today... sad to say jeddez, but yes, when we lose, his line ups and tactics have generally been shit, and sometimes when we've won he's also been shit and we've been lucky. I like Lee, but given a choice I'd out him now before it's too late. If we go down to Luton I wont be alone in my views Ridiculous to change manager now. If it was to have been done it should have been done at very start of transfer window. Would totally destabilise us now. Just ride with him till the end of season and then consider...,Even then would most likely retain him,
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2020 5:17:59 GMT
sad to say jeddez, but yes, when we lose, his line ups and tactics have generally been shit, and sometimes when we've won he's also been shit and we've been lucky. I like Lee, but given a choice I'd out him now before it's too late. If we go down to Luton I wont be alone in my views Ridiculous to change manager now. If it was to have been done it should have been done at very start of transfer window. Would totally destabilise us now. Just ride with him till the end of season and then consider...,Even then would most likely retain him, It's a business, and when businesses get shaky, management changes. We cannot afford to go down to sentiment. I need Charlton in the Championship, hence my seemingly harsh post.
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