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Post by bigandy99 on Feb 23, 2020 8:46:54 GMT
Obviously three points was more important than anything else yesterday but, once again, our midfield was run off it’s feet by movement... and bear in mind this was Luton Town who have the worst away record in the division...this happens almost every home game .. so, how do we solve it?.. how do we dominate at home?.. Do we have the personnel or do we have the coaching?.. Somehow we win games but we’d win more if we bossed the midfield... Maybe Bonne returning gives us more up front which will help the midfield offensively but it’s defensively where we struggle...
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Post by ExeterAddick on Feb 23, 2020 10:05:54 GMT
I think having Pratley back involved might help. Him and Cullen are a solid duo and would allow the likes of Oztumer, Williams, Green or Bonne to threaten higher up the pitch with Taylor.
I think we miss Gallagher’s mobility but with everyone back fit I do think we can threaten teams going forward if Bowyer picks the right blend.
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Post by seriouslyred on Feb 23, 2020 11:27:17 GMT
We play a diamond or a 4-3-3 with Cullen at the base. Williams, Lapslie, Green and McGeady feature in some way or another... with Pratley and others playing when required. Oztumer played well yesterday but...
Here's the thing: decent midfielders and strikers cost a fortune at this level. Our opponents, aside from bottom six, are always going to look very capable compared to what we've been watching for three years.
In Doughty and Matthews we appear to have full backs who can support a narrow diamond - looking forward to the next few games.
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Post by reamsofverse on Feb 23, 2020 11:32:02 GMT
Obviously three points was more important than anything else yesterday but, once again, our midfield was run off it’s feet by movement... and bear in mind this was Luton Town who have the worst away record in the division...this happens almost every home game .. so, how do we solve it?.. how do we dominate at home?.. Do we have the personnel or do we have the coaching?.. Somehow we win games but we’d win more if we bossed the midfield... Maybe Bonne returning gives us more up front which will help the midfield offensively but it’s defensively where we struggle... Well said Andy, this is exactly what I was trying to say last night. Having so many defensive players seems to make us want to retreat instead of holding our line. Be careful though you'll have the anti-negative brigade chasing after you, those who can't spot the difference between that and constructive criticism. |
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Post by bexleyboy on Feb 23, 2020 11:46:40 GMT
Obviously three points was more important than anything else yesterday but, once again, our midfield was run off it’s feet by movement... and bear in mind this was Luton Town who have the worst away record in the division...this happens almost every home game .. so, how do we solve it?.. how do we dominate at home?.. Do we have the personnel or do we have the coaching?.. Somehow we win games but we’d win more if we bossed the midfield... Maybe Bonne returning gives us more up front which will help the midfield offensively but it’s defensively where we struggle... Playing 3 at the back and a number 10 only leaves you with two in mid battle areas .... change the system 442 or 4411 gives you to banks of 4 plus does not leave full backs two against one everytime |
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Post by bigandy99 on Feb 23, 2020 13:01:22 GMT
Obviously three points was more important than anything else yesterday but, once again, our midfield was run off it’s feet by movement... and bear in mind this was Luton Town who have the worst away record in the division...this happens almost every home game .. so, how do we solve it?.. how do we dominate at home?.. Do we have the personnel or do we have the coaching?.. Somehow we win games but we’d win more if we bossed the midfield... Maybe Bonne returning gives us more up front which will help the midfield offensively but it’s defensively where we struggle... Well said Andy, this is exactly what I was trying to say last night. Having so many defensive players seems to make us want to retreat instead of holding our line. Be careful though you'll have the anti-negative brigade chasing after you, those who can't spot the difference between that and constructive criticism. I just find it odd that we’re always chasing the ball at home and never dictating.. we have plenty of winnable games ahead but need to be keeping the ball and passing forwards |
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Post by wellingaddick on Feb 23, 2020 13:33:52 GMT
Well said Andy, this is exactly what I was trying to say last night. Having so many defensive players seems to make us want to retreat instead of holding our line. Be careful though you'll have the anti-negative brigade chasing after you, those who can't spot the difference between that and constructive criticism. I just find it odd that we’re always chasing the ball at home and never dictating.. we have plenty of winnable games ahead but need to be keeping the ball and passing forwards These Championship teams have players who are physically strong, fast, organised and not afraid to put the boot in. Add to that we lost Bielik and Aribo before the start of the season, both of whom would walk into the present side. Unless there is some serious investment, this situation will continue all the while we are in the Championship. |
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Post by seriouslyred on Feb 23, 2020 15:07:34 GMT
Well said Andy, this is exactly what I was trying to say last night. Having so many defensive players seems to make us want to retreat instead of holding our line. Be careful though you'll have the anti-negative brigade chasing after you, those who can't spot the difference between that and constructive criticism. I just find it odd that we’re always chasing the ball at home and never dictating.. we have plenty of winnable games ahead but need to be keeping the ball and passing forwards We have just transitioned from a top six League one outfit to bottom six Championship. Barnsley and Luton have been less successful than us. Clubs such as Barnsley, Rotherham and Peterborough spend all their time in one zone or the other. Look at the opposition compared to last season or watch the Championship on TV - it's going to probably take another two or three transfer windows before we are dictating games at this level. Or think back to the 90s - how many seasons before we were running the show? |
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Post by bigandy99 on Feb 23, 2020 17:58:53 GMT
I just find it odd that we’re always chasing the ball at home and never dictating.. we have plenty of winnable games ahead but need to be keeping the ball and passing forwards We have just transitioned from a top six League one outfit to bottom six Championship. Barnsley and Luton have been less successful than us. Clubs such as Barnsley, Rotherham and Peterborough spend all their time in one zone or the other. Look at the opposition compared to last season or watch the Championship on TV - it's going to probably take another two or three transfer windows before we are dictating games at this level. Or think back to the 90s - how many seasons before we were running the show? All I’m trying to put over SR is we repeatedly get overrun in midfield and don’t do it to others (very often).. after 34 games OUR MOVEMENT should be better than it is... |
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Post by Mundell on Feb 23, 2020 19:31:07 GMT
We have just transitioned from a top six League one outfit to bottom six Championship. Barnsley and Luton have been less successful than us. Clubs such as Barnsley, Rotherham and Peterborough spend all their time in one zone or the other. Look at the opposition compared to last season or watch the Championship on TV - it's going to probably take another two or three transfer windows before we are dictating games at this level. Or think back to the 90s - how many seasons before we were running the show? All I’m trying to put over SR is we repeatedly get overrun in midfield and don’t do it to others (very often).. after 34 games OUR MOVEMENT should be better than it is... I agree bigandy99 and this is an interesting subject for discussion. I have two observations, for what they’re worth. First, we don’t have the players to play pass and move, to dictate the play and control matches. This is, perhaps, partly to do with budget, but I suspect it also reflects what Lee Bowyer looks for in his midfield players. David Davis wasn’t signed by accident, for example. He’s a very solid holding midfield player, but very limited in possession. What we used to call a destroyer. Darren Pratley has become a fan’s favourite, but he’s very similar. He’s no ball player. Even Josh Cullen is much more of a water carrier than a classic midfield general. Of our more creative players, Jonny Williams doesn’t seem to have a high score on passes per game or pass completion rate, for example. His style seems to be more individualistic. Second, I suspect the style of play is also a deliberate choice. Since about the Hull game in particular we seem to have gone more direct. Our approach to the battle in midfield seems to be to harry and disrupt, to look for turnover ball and then to get it forward quickly. We don’t seem to be trying to play through midfield. In a game of very fine margins, looking to minimise our own mistakes while forcing our opponents into making them makes a lot of sense. For example, while we tend to focus on our own errors, Luton will feel that sloppy and/or loose play on their part led to each our three goals yesterday. We forced them into mistakes. In Lee Bowyer’s defence, it’s worked. While we may have ridden our luck at times this season, when the season began most of us would have been very happy with 39 points from 34 matches. Our objective back in August was simply to retain our place in the Championship and our odds of survival are now around 70% according to Skybet. The ends justify the means. Just my perspective. It would be interesting to read other views. |
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Post by seriouslyred on Feb 23, 2020 20:29:50 GMT
Just taken a look at minutes played and this may come as a shocker?
Phillips is ever present and our back four of, Matthews, Doughty, Lockyer and Sarr plus Cullen at CDM have played an average of about 21 games each- based upon minutes on the pitch.
Bonne and Taylor have played about half the games each, but the six candidates for the final three midfield slots have played an average of 600 minutes each all season!
That would be the likes of Williams, Oztumer, Lapslie, Green, Morgan and Davis who have played approximately seven games each out of 34! That's incredibly low partly because Pratley is injured but Gallagher and Leko have left the building.
The upside is that those players are going to play a lot more football together during the run in - several will double their appearances. Hopefully familiarity should help performance and consistency - let's see if the passing and movement improves because that will inevitably lead to both more and better chances.
Would be very interested to hear what others think given the stark reality of six or seven games each for most of our midfield.
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Post by bigandy99 on Feb 23, 2020 23:06:51 GMT
All I’m trying to put over SR is we repeatedly get overrun in midfield and don’t do it to others (very often).. after 34 games OUR MOVEMENT should be better than it is... I agree bigandy99 and this is an interesting subject for discussion. I have two observations, for what they’re worth. First, we don’t have the players to play pass and move, to dictate the play and control matches. This is, perhaps, partly to do with budget, but I suspect it also reflects what Lee Bowyer looks for in his midfield players. David Davis wasn’t signed by accident, for example. He’s a very solid holding midfield player, but very limited in possession. What we used to call a destroyer. Darren Pratley has become a fan’s favourite, but he’s very similar. He’s no ball player. Even Josh Cullen is much more of a water carrier than a classic midfield general. Of our more creative players, Jonny Williams doesn’t seem to have a high score on passes per game or pass completion rate, for example. His style seems to be more individualistic. Second, I suspect the style of play is also a deliberate choice. Since about the Hull game in particular we seem to have gone more direct. Our approach to the battle in midfield seems to be to harry and disrupt, to look for turnover ball and then to get it forward quickly. We don’t seem to be trying to play through midfield. In a game of very fine margins, looking to minimise our own mistakes while forcing our opponents into making them makes a lot of sense. For example, while we tend to focus on our own errors, Luton will feel that sloppy and/or loose play on their part led to each our three goals yesterday. We forced them into mistakes. In Lee Bowyer’s defence, it’s worked. While we may have ridden our luck at times this season, when the season began most of us would have been very happy with 39 points from 34 matches. Our objective back in August was simply to retain our place in the Championship and our odds of survival are now around 70% according to Skybet. The ends justify the means. Just my perspective. It would be interesting to read other views. I don’t see anything wrong in your views Mundell.. you’ve seen it as I do... let’s hope the change of style gets us the necessary wins.. |
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Post by Mundell on Feb 24, 2020 9:05:24 GMT
I thought this article about Barnsley was very interesting. Not directly relevant to the ‘Our current midfield’ topic, but a real insight into one of our direct rivals for relegation. PS I’ll also post it in the “Lies, lies, damn lies and statistics’ thread. |
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Post by seriouslyred on Feb 24, 2020 9:18:42 GMT
All I’m trying to put over SR is we repeatedly get overrun in midfield and don’t do it to others (very often).. after 34 games OUR MOVEMENT should be better than it is... I agree bigandy99 and this is an interesting subject for discussion. I have two observations, for what they’re worth. First, we don’t have the players to play pass and move, to dictate the play and control matches. This is, perhaps, partly to do with budget, but I suspect it also reflects what Lee Bowyer looks for in his midfield players. David Davis wasn’t signed by accident, for example. He’s a very solid holding midfield player, but very limited in possession. What we used to call a destroyer. Darren Pratley has become a fan’s favourite, but he’s very similar. He’s no ball player. Even Josh Cullen is much more of a water carrier than a classic midfield general. Of our more creative players, Jonny Williams doesn’t seem to have a high score on passes per game or pass completion rate, for example. His style seems to be more individualistic. Second, I suspect the style of play is also a deliberate choice. Since about the Hull game in particular we seem to have gone more direct. Our approach to the battle in midfield seems to be to harry and disrupt, to look for turnover ball and then to get it forward quickly. We don’t seem to be trying to play through midfield. In a game of very fine margins, looking to minimise our own mistakes while forcing our opponents into making them makes a lot of sense. For example, while we tend to focus on our own errors, Luton will feel that sloppy and/or loose play on their part led to each our three goals yesterday. We forced them into mistakes. In Lee Bowyer’s defence, it’s worked. While we may have ridden our luck at times this season, when the season began most of us would have been very happy with 39 points from 34 matches. Our objective back in August was simply to retain our place in the Championship and our odds of survival are now around 70% according to Skybet. The ends justify the means. Just my perspective. It would be interesting to read other views. Very interesting take on the situation which appears to state that we aren't playing a classic diamond seeing as Bows chooses at least two "destroyers" to break down the opposition. Will watch the next games with this in mind and pay attention to the midfield shape - perhaps things change when Williams returns? |
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Post by Mundell on Feb 24, 2020 9:45:48 GMT
I agree bigandy99 and this is an interesting subject for discussion. I have two observations, for what they’re worth. First, we don’t have the players to play pass and move, to dictate the play and control matches. This is, perhaps, partly to do with budget, but I suspect it also reflects what Lee Bowyer looks for in his midfield players. David Davis wasn’t signed by accident, for example. He’s a very solid holding midfield player, but very limited in possession. What we used to call a destroyer. Darren Pratley has become a fan’s favourite, but he’s very similar. He’s no ball player. Even Josh Cullen is much more of a water carrier than a classic midfield general. Of our more creative players, Jonny Williams doesn’t seem to have a high score on passes per game or pass completion rate, for example. His style seems to be more individualistic. Second, I suspect the style of play is also a deliberate choice. Since about the Hull game in particular we seem to have gone more direct. Our approach to the battle in midfield seems to be to harry and disrupt, to look for turnover ball and then to get it forward quickly. We don’t seem to be trying to play through midfield. In a game of very fine margins, looking to minimise our own mistakes while forcing our opponents into making them makes a lot of sense. For example, while we tend to focus on our own errors, Luton will feel that sloppy and/or loose play on their part led to each our three goals yesterday. We forced them into mistakes. In Lee Bowyer’s defence, it’s worked. While we may have ridden our luck at times this season, when the season began most of us would have been very happy with 39 points from 34 matches. Our objective back in August was simply to retain our place in the Championship and our odds of survival are now around 70% according to Skybet. The ends justify the means. Just my perspective. It would be interesting to read other views. Very interesting take on the situation which appears to state that we aren't playing a classic diamond seeing as Bows chooses at least two "destroyers" to break down the opposition. Will watch the next games with this in mind and pay attention to the midfield shape - perhaps things change when Williams returns? Take a look at the Barnsley article which I linked above. I hadn’t read it when I posted my comment, but it really resonated for me. They’ve gone for a very different type of player, try to play much more football (through midfield), but have been naive and error prone. Barnsley have made some very different choices to us. For us, Lee Bowyer has said, ‘we’ve got a very low budget, let’s do anything and everything we can to ensure survival, then hopefully some money will arrive (when the club has been sold) so that we can then move on’. Barnsley’s approach has been very different and, perhaps, much less pragmatic. They’ve said ‘we don’t want to spend money (or can’t afford to) so we’re going to source young players cheaply (MoneyBall), develop them, sell them and repeat. We’ll employ a good coach so that our skilful young players develop to their full potential’. If we survive and Barnsley go down, then the recent game at the Valley will have encapsulated these differences to a tee. Barnsley played all the football, appeared to have the most skilful players and yet we won the game. The only possible twist in this story is that in January Barnsley recruited some defensive experience. That might just make the difference for them. If it does, the relegation battle is really going to hot up. |
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Post by earlpurple on Feb 24, 2020 10:30:36 GMT
The relegation battle is fierce. Even Sheffield Wednesday, who were close to the playoffs a few weeks ago, could get sucked in. Barnsley, Luton, Wigan and ourselves have been winning games. We have done well to beat both Luton and Barnsley - they are clearly not push-overs as other teams are finding.
Huddersfield in particular are looking over their shoulders now, and Middlesbrough and Hull could be sucked in. If we hadn't conceded late against Hull we'd be above them in the table.
Sheff Wed are next away and they are there for the taking, and we must know it. I remember in our 2014 survival season we won there 3-2 from going 2-0 down but we'd already won there in the FA Cup, and that was the game I knew we would stay up. I also remember us being both Leeds and Forest away that season. We won at Forest this season too and hopefully we'll go to Leeds not needing a result.
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Post by bigandy99 on Feb 24, 2020 16:37:09 GMT
The relegation battle is fierce. Even Sheffield Wednesday, who were close to the playoffs a few weeks ago, could get sucked in. Barnsley, Luton, Wigan and ourselves have been winning games. We have done well to beat both Luton and Barnsley - they are clearly not push-overs as other teams are finding. Huddersfield in particular are looking over their shoulders now, and Middlesbrough and Hull could be sucked in. If we hadn't conceded late against Hull we'd be above them in the table. Sheff Wed are next away and they are there for the taking, and we must know it. I remember in our 2014 survival season we won there 3-2 from going 2-0 down but we'd already won there in the FA Cup, and that was the game I knew we would stay up. I also remember us being both Leeds and Forest away that season. We won at Forest this season too and hopefully we'll go to Leeds not needing a result. A Marvin Sordell hat trick at Hillsborough if I remember correctly- a real collectors event!! |
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Post by seriouslyred on Feb 24, 2020 20:03:11 GMT
Very interesting take on the situation which appears to state that we aren't playing a classic diamond seeing as Bows chooses at least two "destroyers" to break down the opposition. Will watch the next games with this in mind and pay attention to the midfield shape - perhaps things change when Williams returns? Take a look at the Barnsley article which I linked above. I hadn’t read it when I posted my comment, but it really resonated for me. They’ve gone for a very different type of player, try to play much more football (through midfield), but have been naive and error prone. Barnsley have made some very different choices to us. For us, Lee Bowyer has said, ‘we’ve got a very low budget, let’s do anything and everything we can to ensure survival, then hopefully some money will arrive (when the club has been sold) so that we can then move on’. Barnsley’s approach has been very different and, perhaps, much less pragmatic. They’ve said ‘we don’t want to spend money (or can’t afford to) so we’re going to source young players cheaply (MoneyBall), develop them, sell them and repeat. We’ll employ a good coach so that our skilful young players develop to their full potential’. If we survive and Barnsley go down, then the recent game at the Valley will have encapsulated these differences to a tee. Barnsley played all the football, appeared to have the most skilful players and yet we won the game. The only possible twist in this story is that in January Barnsley recruited some defensive experience. That might just make the difference for them. If it does, the relegation battle is really going to hot up. This is certainly looking interesting, especially if we keep delivering the wins we need! Probably worth looking around for articles on the other clubs caught in the mix to understand their perspective... and this division. Seems to be plenty of fans on here interested in the bigger picture around both playing styles and football strategy at this level. And reminiscing about our various escapes over the years! |
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Post by rationaladdick on Feb 24, 2020 21:01:07 GMT
I defer to you all here.... couple questions....
1. How much of our defensive woes could be solved by improving our midfield?
2. Which specific midfield positions do we most need to upgrade?
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Post by seriouslyred on Feb 24, 2020 21:29:46 GMT
I defer to you all here.... couple questions.... 1. How much of our defensive woes could be solved by improving our midfield? 2. Which specific midfield positions do we most need to upgrade? 1. Much of our game could be improved by upgrading midfield and centre back options 2. We look good at CDM and many rate Green. Like last summer, Williams is our player but the rest are loans Much depends upon the budgets set as we know Bows and Gallen are able to land players. For sure they've had some fails but overall we've seen two years of continuous progress. The real value will be to keep the best five or six out of the 15 out of contract / loan players and then go shopping at a higher level for replacements, just as Brentford have done. But that will cost serious hard cash - were talking at least £10-15M in fees and additional wages. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2020 22:45:49 GMT
It is a worry to me that we are shopping entirely in the domestic market with prices/wages at top end. Nobody wants Belgian rejects but there are decent players in less competitive European leagues.
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Post by Mundell on Feb 25, 2020 10:52:29 GMT
I defer to you all here.... couple questions.... 1. How much of our defensive woes could be solved by improving our midfield? 2. Which specific midfield positions do we most need to upgrade? Don’t want to be too controversial rationaladdick but while there has been much talk about our defensive problems and our need to sign a quality centre back etc, the facts don’t really support this viewpoint. Indeed, it might be argued, given our inability to retain possession and control matches, that our defence has been a real strength this season. We’ve conceded 48 goals so far. Only Middlesbrough (44), Reading (38) and Derby (46) have conceded fewer of the teams in the bottom half of the table. We’ve conceded fewer goals than Bristol City (who sit 7th in the table) and only one more than Cardiff (10th). Only the teams in the top six (plus Reading, as noted) have conceded ten or more goals fewer than us. One of the most remarkable statistics which define our season is that fact that we’ve only conceded more than two goals in two matches, at home against Sheffield Wednesday, who scored their third goal in the 4th minute of injury time, and then away against Stoke where we were totally outplayed. We’ve been unbelievably resilient. I recently posted an analysis of our season to date on the ‘Lies, lies, damn, lies and statistics’ thread. Given your genetically predetermined propensity for logic and analysis, you might find it interesting, if you haven’t already read it. One of the puzzles of that analysis is that notwithstanding the facts about our goals against above, we have the second highest Expected Goals Against in the Championship, behind only Luton. We’ve outperformed Xg by ten goals. I have two observations on this. First, Xg against tells us something about the entire team, not just the back four. The second is, potentially, much more interesting. We don’t know why we’ve conceded so many fewer goals than ‘expected’. Is that outcome random or is there a reason for it? There is something called Xg2. I won’t get into the detail of how this works, but in essence it’s an attempt to measure the quality of shots conceded from each Xg position. In Liverpool’s case, for example, they concede fewer goals than expected based on Xg, but the quality of those shots is lower than it ‘should’ be. It’s Liverpool’s defenders that are responsible for this, perhaps because they’re much better at closing down than other teams, rather than Alisson Becker. We don’t have this data for Charlton, but it’s possible that this is one of our strengths too. A vivid example might be the heroics of Tom Lockyer and Jason Pearce in the extraordinary win against Brentford. If we retain our Championship status our back four will have been a very important and positive part of that success and part of a broader game plan discussed elsewhere in this thread. The challenge is how the club moves on from this. Unfortunately, I suspect it’s not just going to be a simple question of making improvements in a few selected positions. It’s likely to require wholesale changes in most if not all areas of the pitch and perhaps a change in playing style too. A change in playing style would reinforce the need for different personnel of course. |
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