Lies, lies, damn lies and statistics

[Mundell]

Nov 26, 2017 20:34:30 GMT newyorkaddick said:

Huddersfield were promoted last season with a negative goal difference....

Indeed. There are no rules or certainties, but some things are more likely than others. I believe Huddersfield were the first team in League history to do that!!

[Deleted]

Check out @cafcfacts’s Tweet:

[stevebrown]

Nov 28, 2017 23:48:52 GMT @cafcfactsstats said:

Check out @cafcfacts’s Tweet:

Seriouslyred seems to have gone a little quiet on his theory that our crowds are growing every game. Sorry mate, reality is a bugger.
It was soul destroying sitting there last night in the freezing cold in a mainly empty stadium.
500 in the East, 1,000 in the West, 350 Peterborough and 2,500 in the North.
Definitely less than 5,000 in the stadium, which must have also come as a great shock to bexleyboy, who said last week's poor attendance v Rochdale, was because fans were short of money and were saving their cash for the Peterborough game.

Too cold for Charlton, but not too cold for Chelsea & Arsenal eh ?

[Deleted]

Nov 29, 2017 18:52:20 GMT stevebrown said:

Nov 28, 2017 23:48:52 GMT @cafcfactsstats said:

Check out @cafcfacts’s Tweet:

Seriouslyred seems to have gone a little quiet on his theory that our crowds are growing every game. Sorry mate, reality is a bugger.
It was soul destroying sitting there last night in the freezing cold in a mainly empty stadium.
500 in the East, 1,000 in the West, 350 Peterborough and 2,500 in the North.
Definitely less than 5,000 in the stadium, which must have also come as a great shock to bexleyboy, who said last week's poor attendance v Rochdale, was because fans were short of money and were saving their cash for the Peterborough game.

Too cold for Charlton, but not too cold for Chelsea & Arsenal eh ?

Dear oh dear. For someone that gets upset at the 'C' word, you sure like being one.

[seriouslyred]

Nov 29, 2017 18:52:20 GMT stevebrown said:

Nov 28, 2017 23:48:52 GMT @cafcfactsstats said:

Check out @cafcfacts’s Tweet:

Seriouslyred seems to have gone a little quiet on his theory that our crowds are growing every game. Sorry mate, reality is a bugger.
It was soul destroying sitting there last night in the freezing cold in a mainly empty stadium.
500 in the East, 1,000 in the West, 350 Peterborough and 2,500 in the North.
Definitely less than 5,000 in the stadium, which must have also come as a great shock to bexleyboy, who said last week's poor attendance v Rochdale, was because fans were short of money and were saving their cash for the Peterborough game.

Too cold for Charlton, but not too cold for Chelsea & Arsenal eh ?

The reality is that the club is in the top six and the average will be back up to 11,250 after the next game.

We are far better than last season and the gates are materially the same. Nothing to see here.

[canaddick]

Nov 29, 2017 20:54:04 GMT seriouslyred said:

Nov 29, 2017 18:52:20 GMT stevebrown said:

Seriouslyred seems to have gone a little quiet on his theory that our crowds are growing every game. Sorry mate, reality is a bugger.
It was soul destroying sitting there last night in the freezing cold in a mainly empty stadium.
500 in the East, 1,000 in the West, 350 Peterborough and 2,500 in the North.
Definitely less than 5,000 in the stadium, which must have also come as a great shock to bexleyboy, who said last week's poor attendance v Rochdale, was because fans were short of money and were saving their cash for the Peterborough game.

Too cold for Charlton, but not too cold for Chelsea & Arsenal eh ?

The reality is that the club is in the top six and the average will be back up to 11,250 after the next game.

We are far better than last season and the gates are materially the same. Nothing to see here.

Such is the nature of statistics and their use. A one-off special celebration game with a 15k attendance, and you seriously claim it indicates the fans are flocking back?

The real story here is that attendances are (at best) no better despite what are clearly much improved performances on the pitch.

Such is the damage that has been wrought on this club by its owner. It's going to take some work to rebuild.

Sometimes you're more HardToTakeSeriouslyRed ;-)

[Deleted]

[seriouslyred]

Nov 30, 2017 11:49:03 GMT canaddick said:

Nov 29, 2017 20:54:04 GMT seriouslyred said:

The reality is that the club is in the top six and the average will be back up to 11,250 after the next game.

We are far better than last season and the gates are materially the same. Nothing to see here.

Such is the nature of statistics and their use. A one-off special celebration game with a 15k attendance, and you seriously claim it indicates the fans are flocking back?

The real story here is that attendances are (at best) no better despite what are clearly much improved performances on the pitch.

Such is the damage that has been wrought on this club by its owner. It's going to take some work to rebuild.

Sometimes you're more HardToTakeSeriouslyRed ;-)

The real story is that yet another thread has now been hijacked.

That shows complete disrespect to the fan who started the thread two years ago and those who have participated for nearly five pages.

It simply shows the disruptive nature of frustrated protesters. Clearly you'd prefer to throw some more toys on the pitch or are you worried everybody including the national media would laugh at you?

The irony is that we are in the top six and clearly in the midst of a takeover so WTF are you doing you azijnzeikers?!

Perhaps you're just staying in practice for the next owner?

What can be said about the attendances is that they have stopped falling. That is precisely what I posted a week ago on another thread. That stevebrown has chosen to misrepresent those views and you have joined in is a tad ironic given the title of the thread.

We agree that the next game will have a bumper crowd because of the 25th anniversary. And the gates will most probably rise once a takeover goes through.

That's why there's nothing to see. The club has changed direction under the skilful guidance of KR and we are in the top six.

Perhaps the question is best addressed when new owners take over? For it's clear that decent performances and muzzling the CEO has stopped the bleeding but thats not enough to build the gates up.

[Deleted]

Nov 30, 2017 16:28:29 GMT seriouslyred said:

Nov 30, 2017 11:49:03 GMT canaddick said:

Such is the nature of statistics and their use. A one-off special celebration game with a 15k attendance, and you seriously claim it indicates the fans are flocking back?

The real story here is that attendances are (at best) no better despite what are clearly much improved performances on the pitch.

Such is the damage that has been wrought on this club by its owner. It's going to take some work to rebuild.

Sometimes you're more HardToTakeSeriouslyRed ;-)

The real story is that yet another thread has now been hijacked.

That shows complete disrespect to the fan who started the thread two years ago and those who have participated for nearly five pages.

It simply shows the disruptive nature of frustrated protesters. Clearly you'd prefer to throw some more toys on the pitch or are you worried everybody including the national media would laugh at you?

The irony is that we are in the top six and clearly in the midst of a takeover so WTF are you doing you azijnzeikers?!

Perhaps you're just staying in practice for the next owner?

What can be said about the attendances is that they have stopped falling. That is precisely what I posted a week ago on another thread. That stevebrown has chosen to misrepresent those views and you have joined in is a tad ironic given the title of the thread.

We agree that the next game will have a bumper crowd because of the 25th anniversary. And the gates will most probably rise once a takeover goes through.

That's why there's nothing to see. The club has changed direction under the skilful guidance of KR and we are in the top six.

Perhaps the question is best addressed when new owners take over? For it's clear that decent performances and muzzling the CEO has stopped the bleeding but thats not enough to build the gates up.

Really tired of crowd stats that have fuck all to do with anything, like you cannot get promotion with low crowds.  I wouldn't waste your breath Kev, we should be this, we should be that.  Well tough, the world doesn't revolve around what a few wank fans think Charlton Athletic should be.

[Deleted]

Nov 30, 2017 16:38:11 GMT @timbercroft said:

Oops! Double post "so good I done it twice"

[Mundell]

I’ve copied a link below to Experimental’s trend analysis. The charts compare ‘expected’ goal difference with ‘actual’ goal difference and plot how this has been changing over sequences of ten matches. The data goes back to our Championship relegation season. 

Although, as usual with Experimental, the analysis is elegant and very well presented, it’s hard to know quite what to make of it. As I’ve previously noted, Wigan Athletic appear to be a class apart and head and shoulders above everybody else in the League. At the other end of the table, Northampton Town are struggling very badly as too are Plymouth Argyle. However, no other sides really stand out at either end of the table. 

Blackburn have been improving and are perhaps the current favourites for second place behind Wigan, but they appear to have more points that they ‘deserve’. Shrewsbury and Bradford also seem to be outperforming. 

This is ought to auger well for us because while it means that one automatic promotion place has already been taken, the competition for the top six is wide open. Unfortunately, we too look distinctly ordinary. More consistent than last season, but no better than we were when Karl Robinson was appointed manager. Robinson’s team clearly has determination, resilience and togetherness. I suspect that’s largely responsible for the fact that we’ve secured five or six points more than our performances have warranted and it might be enough to keep us in the hunt, but we’ll probably need the breaks to win one of the coveted play-off places. 

Here’s the link.

[seriouslyred]

Thanks for that Mundell . One can but concur: Wigan are way ahead, whilst Blackburn are second favourites after a shaky start. And CAFC are in the same place as Bradford, Shrewsbury, Oxford, Peterborough and Portsmouth with an xG slightly above zero.

What is interesting to note is that the xG was there at certain points of last season but we clearly underperformed in terms of actual goals. Magennis and Holmes feature across both seasons so perhaps the difference is Fosu and an improved JFC?

These stats suggest that we are good enough to make the play-offs and that games against Portsmouth and Shrewsbury will tell us whether we are on course for Wembley or just there to make up the numbers.

The stats and the games we watch should confirm to people that we simply not candidates for automatic promotion. It would take an extremely productive coaching programme and some very good signings to add 0.5 to our xG every week.

Right now with an xG of 0.2 we will win some, lose some and should comfortably secure 1.5 points per game from here on in which is enough to keep us in the top six.

[seriouslyred]

Here are the latest timelines for yesterday's games. They suggest that Portsmouth deserved the win. He has also added in the Peterborough game where the xG suggest that a draw was a fair result. The stats for the other games continue to show that Wigan are streets ahead whilst Blackburn edge games and Shrewsbury are slipping back to the same standard as the other sides pursuing the play-offs. All to play for!

[Mundell]

Dec 10, 2017 13:17:46 GMT seriouslyred said:

Here are the latest timelines for yesterday's games. They suggest that Portsmouth deserved the win. He has also added in the Peterborough game where the xG suggest that a draw was a fair result. The stats for the other games continue to show that Wigan are streets ahead whilst Blackburn edge games and Shrewsbury are slipping back to the same standard as the other sides pursuing the play-offs. All to play for!

As ever, these statistics require very careful interpretation, especially when applied to individual matches. Inevitably, there are glitches with the Experimental 3-6-1 model, some of which are more obvious than others. One which I know Ben Mayhew plans to fix concerns the treatment goal mouth scrambles, i.e. where there are multiple shots during a single move.

A more difficult problem relates to penalties. It’s very clear from the timelines for the Peterborough and Portsmouth games that the ‘expected’ goal value of a penalty is, not surprisingly, very high and equivalent to three, four or even five good chances created from open play. However, this is likely to significantly overstate the expected goal value of the move which led to a penalty being awarded. Brett Pitman was not going to score even had Chris Solly not tugged his shirt, for example, and the foul on Jake Forster-Caskey was similarly unnecessary.

As result, by my reckoning the timelines from these two games are a little misleading with ‘expected goals for’ flattering us in the first game and then Portsmouth yesterday. The value of this type of analysis is best seen over sequences of at least six matches, and ideally more. In contrast to the way the season began, we currently appear reasonably solid at the back, but we’re simply not creating enough chances.

[Mundell]

Here are Experimental's timelines from yesterday's game against Blackpool. They don't tell us much we didn't already know, but they do confirm our complete lack of a goal threat in the second half. 

League One timelines 23rd December

The Oxford v Wigan game is interesting. Wigan's expected goals for was less than three, but it seems they scored from every opportunity they created. Nightmare afternoon for Oxford. 

[Mundell]

For those who might be interested I thought I’d copy a link to Experimental 3-6-1’s latest analysis. Don’t have time to comment other than to say that it doesn’t make for good reading. Remarkably, based on this updated analysis, we appear to be no better than we were last season under Russell Slade. Either that’s wrong or it raises serious questions about Karl Robinson’s coaching of what appears to be a stronger squad.

Something for a new owner to chew on perhaps. Anyway, here’s the link. 

League One Club Rankings

[seriouslyred]

A listing of all results in 2017 might show CAFC in the top six but the stats will not validate this as they would probably place us 9th. Whether you were at the game yesterday or not the graphs on the attached confirms what we saw. In summary we flatlined first half - absolutely nothing and it took changes plus a half time team talk to wake them up. The only upside is that we did wake up and the lads created something in the last 15 minutes. Elsewhere in the division we can see that Wigan, Peterborough, Blackburn and Scunthorpe all had an xG of close to two goals.

A club aspiring for success needs to be in that zone every week AND have the players who can convert chances into goals. Players like Aribo and Fosu perhaps?

[Deleted]

[johnnyh2]

Jan 2, 2018 16:31:27 GMT @cafcfactsstats said:

2 points better off than last season, the improvements we made to the squad in the summer have been undermined by the failure to complete the squad at the end of August.

[Mundell]

seriouslyred will be delighted. We were discussing this only yesterday. Experimental 3-6-1's E Ratings have returned.


Here's the link

No real surprises. We are currently ranked 10th in the League with around a 40% chance of a Playoff place. Wigan and Blackburn are comfortably the best sides in the League. 

I might add a further comment later if time permits.  

[Mundell]

Just eighteen games to go and here are our remaining fixtures, home and away, ranked by the League table position of our opponents. Numbers in brackets by each team are the respective E Ratings.

As I noted earlier is this thread our fixture list this season seems to be very skewed, but now I feel that this might really work in our favour.  

We now face a sequence of very difficult home matches, but with much more winnable fixtures away. We'll have home advantage in five really big games against our promotion rivals. What a difference it would make if we could win them all. Only last week I'd have said that there is simply no chance of that, but while at times we were a little shaky at the back yesterday, we once again looked like a team that could score goals and win football matches. So you never know. 

The balance of our away fixtures is very different. More big games at Shrewsbury, Peterborough and Portsmouth, but then seven fixtures a team with promotion ambitions would hope to win. 

Home (8)


2. Blackburn (2)

3. Shrewsbury (9)

4. Scunthorpe (6)

5. Bradford (3)

7. Rotherham (4)

10. Oxford (8)

13. Fleetwood (17)

15. Plymouth (21)


Away (10)


3. Shrewsbury (9)

8. Peterborough (11)

9. Portsmouth (5)

12. Doncaster (18)

14. Bristol Rovers (7)

17. Blackpool (12)

18. Northampton (23)

19. AFC Wimbledon (16)

21. MK Dons (19)

23 Rochdale (13)

[seriouslyred]

Thanks Mundell for highlighting the latest from Ben Mayhew. My gut feel was that we were 50:50 for the play-offs and this isn't far off at 40%. We will see how this develops over the course of the season.

There are stories of more players joining. We all saw the impact of Mavididi and Fosu on a mid-table defence. If this is repeated next week away to Blackpool, and the other weaker teams you later highlight, then the odds will surely move in our favour.

Today the bookies carry odds similar but slightly different to the model on Experimental 361. We appear to be 7th favourites for promotion and a top six finish. Better than at the turn of the year but a long way from 3rd or 4th favourites last October.

The development of these odds appears to be what determines the mood of the fans which is somewhat unsurprising. Perhaps another time / thread it's worth exploring the relationship between fan expectations and the reality of this model?

[stonemuse]

Jan 21, 2018 11:33:45 GMT Mundell said:

seriouslyred will be delighted. We were discussing this only yesterday. Experimental 3-6-1's E Ratings have returned.


Here's the link

No real surprises. We are currently ranked 10th in the League with around a 40% chance of a Playoff place. Wigan and Blackburn are comfortably the best sides in the League. 

I might add a further comment later if time permits.  

Probability of finishing 7th according to the link.

Four weeks ago, I would have agreed. Last week, I had us finishing 6th.

I now believe we will reach 5th, and 4th is not beyond our reach.

We should have been up with the top three, but no point thinking ‘if only’.

[Mundell]

Jan 21, 2018 12:31:40 GMT seriouslyred said:

Thanks Mundell for highlighting the latest from Ben Mayhew. My gut feel was that we were 50:50 for the play-offs and this isn't far off at 40%. We will see how this develops over the course of the season.

There are stories of more players joining. We all saw the impact of Mavididi and Fosu on a mid-table defence. If this is repeated next week away to Blackpool, then the odds will surely move in our favour.

Today the bookies carry odds similar but slightly different to the model on Experimental 361. We appear to be 7th favourites for promotion and a top six finish. Better than at the turn of the year but a long way from 3rd or 4th favourites last October.

The development of these odds appears to be what determines the mood of the fans which is somewhat unsurprising. Perhaps another time / thread it's worth exploring the relationship between fan expectations and the reality of this model?

The bookmakers' odds are interesting. Both they and Experimental rank us as the 7th most likely side to win promotion. The difference is that Experimental has Rotherham ahead of us, reflecting their stronger E Rating, while the bookies favour Portsmouth. As far as the bookies are concerned that may reflect the Kenny Jackett effect, while the statistical approach is obviously not impacted by considerations of that type. 

It promises to be a fantastic end to the season. Our last three home matches are against Rotherham, Scunthorpe and Blackburn. In my view, for what that's worth, the Mavididi for Holmes swap has significantly increased our chances of winning matches like these. It would be nice to have Bauer and Pearce back too though. 

[Mundell]

Jan 21, 2018 12:32:45 GMT stonemuse said:

Jan 21, 2018 11:33:45 GMT Mundell said:

seriouslyred will be delighted. We were discussing this only yesterday. Experimental 3-6-1's E Ratings have returned.


Here's the link

No real surprises. We are currently ranked 10th in the League with around a 40% chance of a Playoff place. Wigan and Blackburn are comfortably the best sides in the League. 

I might add a further comment later if time permits.  

Probability of finishing 7th according to the link.

Four weeks ago, I would have agreed. Last week, I had us finishing 6th.

I now believe we will reach 5th, and 4th is not beyond our reach.

We should have been up with the top three, but no point thinking ‘if only’.

I agree. I'm now a fair bit more optimistic too. I don't think we'll miss Holmes. And Mavididi is potentially devastating at this level.  

[seriouslyred]

Jan 21, 2018 12:32:45 GMT stonemuse said:

Jan 21, 2018 11:33:45 GMT Mundell said:

seriouslyred will be delighted. We were discussing this only yesterday. Experimental 3-6-1's E Ratings have returned.


Here's the link

No real surprises. We are currently ranked 10th in the League with around a 40% chance of a Playoff place. Wigan and Blackburn are comfortably the best sides in the League. 

I might add a further comment later if time permits.  

Probability of finishing 7th according to the link.

Four weeks ago, I would have agreed. Last week, I had us finishing 6th.

I now believe we will reach 5th, and 4th is not beyond our reach.

We should have been up with the top three, but no point thinking ‘if only’.

100% agree. "If only" Mavididi had come to us instead of spending six months on the Preston bench then we'd be in a better place. Today the challenge is twofold: ensure a top six finish and ensure that we can actually compete in the play-offs.

If we can raise our game against the better sides then this will be a season to remember!

Edit perhaps we can request experimental 361 produce some stats after Mavididi, Marshall and Fosu have played eight games together? Best fill boots at the bookies first!

[Deleted]

Stats or no stats, 3 weeks ago I said 100 points were available...they still are 

[Deleted]

Jan 21, 2018 12:50:43 GMT @timbercroft said:

Stats or no stats, 3 weeks ago I said 100 points were available...they still are 

Thank you for that stat -- 

[Deleted]

Jan 21, 2018 12:54:35 GMT @sunvalley said:

Jan 21, 2018 12:50:43 GMT @timbercroft said:

Stats or no stats, 3 weeks ago I said 100 points were available...they still are 

Thank you for that stat -- 

That's good 

[jonkool]

Jan 21, 2018 12:29:38 GMT Mundell said:

Just eighteen games to go and here are our remaining fixtures, home and away, ranked by the League table position of our opponents. Numbers in brackets by each team are the respective E Ratings.

As I noted earlier is this thread our fixture list this season seems to be very skewed, but now I feel that this might really work in our favour.  

We now face a sequence of very difficult home matches, but with much more winnable fixtures away. We'll have home advantage in five really big games against our promotion rivals. What a difference it would make if we could win them all. Only last week I'd have said that there is simply no chance of that, but while at times we were a little shaky at the back yesterday, we once again looked like a team that could score goals and win football matches. So you never know. 

The balance of our away fixtures is very different. More big games at Shrewsbury, Peterborough and Portsmouth, but then seven fixtures a team with promotion ambitions would hope to win. 

Home (8)


2. Blackburn (2)

3. Shrewsbury (9)

4. Scunthorpe (6)

5. Bradford (3)

7. Rotherham (4)

10. Oxford (8)

13. Fleetwood (17)

15. Plymouth (21)


Away (10)


3. Shrewsbury (9)

8. Peterborough (11)

9. Portsmouth (5)

12. Doncaster (18)

14. Bristol Rovers (7)

17. Blackpool (12)

18. Northampton (23)

19. AFC Wimbledon (16)

21. MK Dons (19)

23 Rochdale (13)

Like many i do look from time to time at the remaining fixtures but by introducing such a simple filter as o/s games split and listed by venue gives a whole different picture of future possibilities. Thanks for that Mundell!

The relatively easier (a very dangerous comment in this or any division) number of away fixtures where the pace of Mavididi, Fosu, Marshall, the new lad from Palace (signing hopefully completed tomorrow) will be ideally suited to counter attacking and this should theoretically improve our stats. Lower league teams generally have a high defensive number and I would guess that their individual defenders will be fearful of the quality and pace here in tier 3.

That brings us back to the major head to head battles against the teams who are above us. Playing them at home should (another dangerous presumption) improve our chances in these ‘6 pointers’ and we would need to be successful in at least 3 or 4 of these clashes in order to improve our chances of overtaking one or two of the teams above us. This in turn would allow us wiggle room in the event of a couple of teams below us managing to overtake us.

All in all the remaining fixture list is ‘helpful’ and I’m sure that most of us wouldn’t wish for anything better - we potentially benefit from not having to play Wigan again whilst having two opportunities of playing a far smaller club in terms of resources in Shrewsbury who have an almost identical E rating should be helpful too.

When looking at our attack and defence ratings it would appear that the comparative defence rating (16th) is more in need of immediate improvement. As fans we may argue that the amount of injuries to our CBs plus Solly and Page has contributed to the defence rating and the improved availability may help improve the defence rating going forward.

As far as our attack rating is concerned (9th) the extra pace back in the team should help further improve the attack rating but the cherry on the cake will be the arrival of a striker who is comfortable in finding the net 15+ times over a full season.

Most fans will always try to find good reason why they can buck the trend of the stats - it’s known as wishful thinking - and with us it’s a hope that the new arrivals are better than those leaving in January thus strengthening the squad (highly possible?) In addition we can only hope that we will have most injured players returning whilst new injuries will only be minor and far less frequent. If so our overall comparative E rating could steadily improve.

The stat which I find most interesting is the E rating for Bristol Rovers. It would appear that there current E rating and their actual results are at a great variance - I suppose this demonstrates that stats are a very useful guide but occasionally they can prove unreliable.