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Post by seriouslyred on Aug 25, 2019 7:15:03 GMT
Was looking for the "expected goals" on Experimental 3-6-1 and came across this analysis which shows the League table as if games had gone according to expected goals rather than actual. Clearly we have been precise in terms of putting away our chances but the point is not how we are jammy to be second. Instead just consider the progress that we have made throughout 2019 to go from play-off contenders to promoted, to the tenth best side in the Championship according to this analysis. We can also see how well Brentford would be doing if they could finish. We can also see that we are very close to our next opponents, Reading. It's only stats and not actual results but does show that we are certainly holding our own in this division, and six places above Millwall!
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2019 7:35:05 GMT
5 games
11 points
2nd in the league.
I think this is what you are trying to say?
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sardonic
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Post by sardonic on Aug 25, 2019 7:47:36 GMT
5 games 11 points 2nd in the league. I think this is what you are trying to say? If you read the page it’s another perspective of predicting how likely we are able to win games. Football is now a very statistic related game. Data analysts in the club will provide a report on players on attributes such as number of km ran, number of sprints, tracking their heat map throughout the game and much more. No player can hide anymore. Some find it interesting and some don’t but it’s good to know it’s there for people to decide.
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Post by elfsborgfranboras on Aug 25, 2019 7:56:13 GMT
5 games 11 points 2nd in the league. I think this is what you are trying to say? If you read the page it’s another perspective of predicting how likely we are able to win games. Football is now a very statistic related game. Data analysts in the club will provide a report on players on attributes such as number of km ran, number of sprints, tracking their heat map throughout the game and much more. No player can hide anymore. Some find it interesting and some don’t but it’s good to know it’s there for people to decide. Football is played between 22 players, with a ball on grass. Not on a spreadsheet.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2019 8:06:04 GMT
I'm inclined to agree that there is a lot more to football than predictive statistics.
For example, anybody using them as a basis for placing bets on Charlton since the beginning of this season would be out of pocket by now. Eventually the stats will catch up and predictions will close their gap on reality. But for me the excitement of trying to anticipate how the team will get on a week or a month from now is not enhanced by a spreadsheet.
Obviously I love stats about CAFC. But my appreciation for them lies mostly in the Club's past, which they help me to understand and feel a bit closer to - along with accounts of famous games long past and great players from our history.
I think this thread does what it claims - offers a different perspective. Our differing views on that will carry it forwards, making it a valid topic whether most agree or disagree over how much it matters.
By the way, I do not think Charlton have been jammy so far to be where they are. We've had a little good luck perhaps. But a molehill's worth compared to the mountain of hard graft and fighting spirit shown by our manager and his players.
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sardonic
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Post by sardonic on Aug 25, 2019 8:12:12 GMT
If you read the page it’s another perspective of predicting how likely we are able to win games. Football is now a very statistic related game. Data analysts in the club will provide a report on players on attributes such as number of km ran, number of sprints, tracking their heat map throughout the game and much more. No player can hide anymore. Some find it interesting and some don’t but it’s good to know it’s there for people to decide. Football is played between 22 players, with a ball on grass. Not on a spreadsheet. Yes but it goes much deeper than that. You may not like/understand it but the analysis side has become a major part of the game in recent years.
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Post by overthetop on Aug 25, 2019 8:13:59 GMT
If you read the page it’s another perspective of predicting how likely we are able to win games. Football is now a very statistic related game. Data analysts in the club will provide a report on players on attributes such as number of km ran, number of sprints, tracking their heat map throughout the game and much more. No player can hide anymore. Some find it interesting and some don’t but it’s good to know it’s there for people to decide. Football is played between 22 players, with a ball on grass. Not on a spreadsheet. Summed up by the actual points total against the expected points total is only 10% accurate for the Premier League and only 8% accurate for the Championship. And as for goals scored/conceded only one figure is accurate for both divisions - 1.13% accurate.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2019 8:24:48 GMT
Lies damned lies and statistics.
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Post by overthetop on Aug 25, 2019 8:26:10 GMT
Lies damned lies and statistics. 84% of all statistics are made up.
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Post by cafc2002 on Aug 25, 2019 8:28:43 GMT
The Brentford bench were actually using a monitor they set up before the game which tracked all the players. I know we use the same sort of thing but dont think we have one set up on the bench.
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sardonic
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Post by sardonic on Aug 25, 2019 8:36:19 GMT
The Brentford bench were actually using a monitor they set up before the game which tracked all the players. I know we use the same sort of thing but dont think we have one set up on the bench. It might be cause they are an away team and can’t use our cameras?!
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Post by elfsborgfranboras on Aug 25, 2019 8:40:34 GMT
Football is played between 22 players, with a ball on grass. Not on a spreadsheet. Yes but it goes much deeper than that. You may not like/understand it but the analysis side has become a major part of the game in recent years. I don't like the analysis side. I do understand the analysis side for the players. The rest is bull***
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sardonic
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Post by sardonic on Aug 25, 2019 8:50:00 GMT
Yes but it goes much deeper than that. You may not like/understand it but the analysis side has become a major part of the game in recent years. I don't like the analysis side. I do understand the analysis side for the players. The rest is bull*** Yeah maybe to you but every top league uses it so it must have some substance. Even if it is used within coaching in terms of movement and positioning it can aide coaching. Seeing trends in how teams attack and defend plus strengths and weaknesses can help develop tactics for each game. The best part is football has so many variables it can only be used to assist with these decisions so can never be 100% right and that’s why results can be random at times and ruin my accies each weekend!
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2019 9:04:20 GMT
seriouslyred has got form where this sort of thing is concerned. Remember under Riga when we were relegated with our arses hanging out...and Kevin claimed that “Sqwarka” showed that based on second half thrown ins that season, we were actually top of the Championship Classic.
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sardonic
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Post by sardonic on Aug 25, 2019 9:12:53 GMT
seriouslyred has got form where this sort of thing is concerned. Remember under Riga when we were relegated with our arses hanging out...and Kevin claimed that “Sqwarka” showed that based on second half thrown ins that season, we were actually top of the Championship Classic. Why the need to get personal again? Seriouslyred didn’t get us relegated did he? If at that time he provided some stats then perhaps that was just to give people an insight into what was happening statistically?!
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Post by oldred on Aug 25, 2019 9:21:23 GMT
Lies damned lies and statistics. 84% of all statistics are made up. Whereas 100% of lies are made up.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2019 9:22:29 GMT
seriouslyred has got form where this sort of thing is concerned. Remember under Riga when we were relegated with our arses hanging out...and Kevin claimed that “Sqwarka” showed that based on second half thrown ins that season, we were actually top of the Championship Classic. Why the need to get personal again? Seriouslyred didn’t get us relegated did he? If at that time he provided some stats then perhaps that was just to give people an insight into what was happening statistically?! Why the need to be pompous again ? We all know that Kev loves a stat. He uses them to disguise his lack of understanding of the game at times. The only stat that matters is 50 points & 21st position this season. Given the start we have had, 60-65 points and 14th-18th place is possible. Under a serious owner we could even have a tilt at promotion in January, given proper investment.
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sardonic
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Post by sardonic on Aug 25, 2019 9:30:12 GMT
Why the need to get personal again? Seriouslyred didn’t get us relegated did he? If at that time he provided some stats then perhaps that was just to give people an insight into what was happening statistically?! Why the need to be pompous again ? We all know that Kev loves a stat. He uses them to disguise his lack of understanding of the game at times. The only stat that matters is 50 points & 21st position this season. Given the start we have had, 60-65 points and 14th-18th place is possible. Under a serious owner we could even have a tilt at promotion in January, given proper investment. Who is being pompous? You are very rude to someone you don’t know, can you not have a discussion without resorting to insults? Needless and unhelpful to say the least. Those points tallies are true, the most important stat is safety but it’s not the only stat. We have started better than anyone expected, long way to go but the team look good and even players who you wrote off are playing well. The team will improve more as they play and train together and there will be a great level of interchangeability between players, good time to be watching our team evolve!
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Post by jonkool on Aug 25, 2019 9:31:34 GMT
If you read the page it’s another perspective of predicting how likely we are able to win games. Football is now a very statistic related game. Data analysts in the club will provide a report on players on attributes such as number of km ran, number of sprints, tracking their heat map throughout the game and much more. No player can hide anymore. Some find it interesting and some don’t but it’s good to know it’s there for people to decide. Football is played between 22 players, with a ball on grass. Not on a spreadsheet. Of course but the stats side is interesting particularly in game prediction online competitions - trust me on that Elfs 😜
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2019 9:35:08 GMT
Why the need to be pompous again ? We all know that Kev loves a stat. He uses them to disguise his lack of understanding of the game at times. The only stat that matters is 50 points & 21st position this season. Given the start we have had, 60-65 points and 14th-18th place is possible. Under a serious owner we could even have a tilt at promotion in January, given proper investment. Who is being pompous? You are very rude to someone you don’t know, can you not have a discussion without resorting to insults? Needless and unhelpful to say the least. Those points tallies are true, the most important stat is safety but it’s not the only stat. We have started better than anyone expected, long way to go but the team look good and even players who you wrote off are playing well. The team will improve more as they play and train together and there will be a great level of interchangeability between players, good time to be watching our team evolve! Kevin & I are old pals. He’s sent me (long) DMs expressing his admiration for the way elfsborgfranboras & I have got ITTV rocking again. We have been pleased to assist. All we need now is the return of Nigel Williamson & James Dutton
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Post by elfsborgfranboras on Aug 25, 2019 9:43:24 GMT
seriouslyred has got form where this sort of thing is concerned. Remember under Riga when we were relegated with our arses hanging out...and Kevin claimed that “Sqwarka” showed that based on second half thrown ins that season, we were actually top of the Championship Classic. Why the need to get personal again? Seriouslyred didn’t get us relegated did he? If at that time he provided some stats then perhaps that was just to give people an insight into what was happening statistically?! You're having a laugh.
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Post by elfsborgfranboras on Aug 25, 2019 9:45:53 GMT
Why the need to be pompous again ? We all know that Kev loves a stat. He uses them to disguise his lack of understanding of the game at times. The only stat that matters is 50 points & 21st position this season. Given the start we have had, 60-65 points and 14th-18th place is possible. Under a serious owner we could even have a tilt at promotion in January, given proper investment. Who is being pompous? You are very rude to someone you don’t know, can you not have a discussion without resorting to insults? Needless and unhelpful to say the least. Those points tallies are true, the most important stat is safety but it’s not the only stat. We have started better than anyone expected, long way to go but the team look good and even players who you wrote off are playing well. The team will improve more as they play and train together and there will be a great level of interchangeability between players, good time to be watching our team evolve! I can inagine the chat over a half time cuppa. If we can get 3 corners by 75 minutes statistically we'll score. Let's see where we are at 16.30
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Post by elfsborgfranboras on Aug 25, 2019 9:47:18 GMT
Who is being pompous? You are very rude to someone you don’t know, can you not have a discussion without resorting to insults? Needless and unhelpful to say the least. Those points tallies are true, the most important stat is safety but it’s not the only stat. We have started better than anyone expected, long way to go but the team look good and even players who you wrote off are playing well. The team will improve more as they play and train together and there will be a great level of interchangeability between players, good time to be watching our team evolve! Kevin & I are old pals. He’s sent me (long) DMs expressing his admiration for the way elfsborgfranboras & I have got ITTV rocking again. We have been pleased to assist. All we need now is the return of Nigel Williamson & James Dutton I'm not in total agreement with this post!
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Post by cafc2002 on Aug 25, 2019 9:48:16 GMT
Who is being pompous? You are very rude to someone you don’t know, can you not have a discussion without resorting to insults? Needless and unhelpful to say the least. Those points tallies are true, the most important stat is safety but it’s not the only stat. We have started better than anyone expected, long way to go but the team look good and even players who you wrote off are playing well. The team will improve more as they play and train together and there will be a great level of interchangeability between players, good time to be watching our team evolve! Kevin & I are old pals. He’s sent me (long) DMs expressing his admiration for the way elfsborgfranboras & I have got ITTV rocking again. We have been pleased to assist. All we need now is the return of Nigel Williamson & James Dutton 🤣🤣🤣🤣
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Post by lukepiestalker on Aug 25, 2019 9:54:17 GMT
Football is played between 22 players, with a ball on grass. Not on a spreadsheet. Yes but it goes much deeper than that. You may not like/understand it but the analysis side has become a major part of the game in recent years. Indeed. Dreisden has shown us that.
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sardonic
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Post by sardonic on Aug 25, 2019 9:57:19 GMT
Yes but it goes much deeper than that. You may not like/understand it but the analysis side has become a major part of the game in recent years. Indeed. Dreisden has shown us that. Has he? I was led to believe he was just the link between Steve Gallen and Roland Duchâtelet in terms of player acquisition. Nothing to do with in game statistics.
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Post by seriouslyred on Aug 25, 2019 12:35:43 GMT
As ever the noise from the luddites, Royston and Elfs drowns out the discussion, which one supposes is the purpose.
The point is that Brentford are playing well, had 70% of the possession and have clearly built a nifty side. But they've sold their top striker Maupay and failed to replace him. Their analytical approach required hard cash to be spent in the last window.
Thus injuries, transfers and luck at games all changes the outcome. But here's the thing: if one took these stats and mapped them to wage bill or transfer spend, then one might see a pattern emerge? And see CAFC as an outlier with the lowest wage bill but a decent set of stats.
In other words it hasn't taken millions in transfers and wages to bring us to this point. So what will it take in January to take us to the next level?
Another stat that Royston and Elfs will appreciate is that the number of Charlton fans going compared to the first three games last season is up by 6,500 to 15,000. So much for talk of the destruction of CAFC!
But back on topic, the stats show that if Taylor (and Gallagher) loses form or suffers injury then the results will dip as goals dry up - we are in second because of Taylor's precision - he's worth a lot more than £4M to CAFC.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2019 12:47:49 GMT
^^^^^^^^
Kevin,
Are you aware that we are playing in a higher league, against clubs that bring far more away fans ?
On average an extra 2,000 ....remember when Fleetwood brought 95 to the Valley?
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Post by elfsborgfranboras on Aug 25, 2019 13:27:40 GMT
The Brentford bench were actually using a monitor they set up before the game which tracked all the players. I know we use the same sort of thing but dont think we have one set up on the bench. When did we play them?
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Post by elfsborgfranboras on Aug 25, 2019 13:29:16 GMT
Yes but it goes much deeper than that. You may not like/understand it but the analysis side has become a major part of the game in recent years. Indeed. Dreisden has shown us that. He's still 'scouting' for us I believe.
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